Loading prices...

Register/Sign in
oilmonster
Natural Gas November 24, 2021 01:30:47 AM

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Look to Post First Net Withdrawal of Season

Anil
Mathews
OilMonster Author
November industrial demand is averaging 11.5 Bcf/d, up 800 MMcf/d from October and up 1.5 Bcf/d from September, which saw the height of hurricane-related impacts.
U.S. Natural Gas Storage Look to Post First Net Withdrawal of Season

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): US natural gas storage fields are expected to post the first net withdrawal of the winter season, which should be about half the five-year average, while the NYMEX December Henry Hub contract climbs back above $5/MMBtu.

The US Energy Information Administration is expected to report a 23 Bcf draw for the week-ended Nov. 19, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts. Responses to the survey ranged from a 12 to 30-Bcf withdrawal. The EIA plans to release its weekly storage report on Nov. 24 at noon ET, which is one day earlier than usual due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

A 23 Bcf withdrawal would be about half the five-year average draw of 44 Bcf but more than the 11 Bcf draw reported during the corresponding week in 2020. It would shrink stocks to 3.621 Tcf. The deficit to the five-year average and 2020 would settle at 60 Bcf and 322 Bcf, respectively.

This week's storage forecast reflects the disparate paths the different regions are following, with the East and Midwest already in winter-withdrawal mode while the South Central and Pacific continue to sluggishly net-injection late into November, according to Platts Analytics.

This narrative quickly changes once we get to the week in progress, where the South Central appears to be firmly in withdrawal mode based on pipeline sample data, but even still there are some facilities in the South Central and even in the East region where nominal injections are taking place, if not daily then at least on a few days this week.

The NYMEX Henry Hub December contract added 22 cents during the trade day on Nov. 23 to $5.01/MMBtu. January through March added 21 cents to average $4.93/MMBtu.

Platts Analytics' supply and demand model expects a 66 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 26, which is nearly double the five-year average withdrawal of 31 Bcf. This is the first week of the season where a net withdrawal is expected in the South Central region.

Industrial demand in the Southeast and Texas is on the path to fully recover from the impacts of Hurricane Ida in late August after lingering outages and maintenance works prolonged its rebound to pre-hurricane levels, according to Platts Analytics. November industrial demand is averaging 11.5 Bcf/d, up 800 MMcf/d from October and up 1.5 Bcf/d from September, which saw the height of hurricane-related impacts.

While the rebound is likely driven by both the winding down of hurricane-related impacts along the Gulf and seasonal upswings typically seen during the winter, month-to-date demand has climbed 100 MMcf/d above last year's levels in November and is now in line with November 2019 demand, suggesting that industrial demand is on the right track towards full recovery, although some lingering prolonged outages remain.

Courtesy: www.spglobal.com


×

Quick Search

Advanced Search