China LNG Imports to Rise Modestly in 2026 as Global Supply Grows

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are expected to edge higher in 2026 as expanding global supply weighs on prices and demand from power generation and transport gradually recovers, though gains are likely to remain modest amid ongoing economic weakness, analysts said.

The world’s largest LNG buyer is forecast to import between 70.5 million and 75.5 million metric tons this year, representing a 3% to 10% increase from 2025, according to estimates from five market analysts. Even at the upper end, volumes would remain below 2024 levels after imports fell by an unusual 10% last year due to a mild winter and subdued industrial activity, marking the first decline outside the pandemic in a decade.

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Gas demand is expected to rebound slightly in 2026. Analysts at Sublime China Information said rising adoption of LNG-powered trucks alone could lift demand by around 3.6 million tons. However, LNG continues to compete with cheaper domestic gas and pipeline supplies from Russia, limiting upside.

Rystad Energy estimates China’s domestic gas output will rise by about 12 billion cubic metres this year, well short of the projected 25 bcm increase in demand, while Russian pipeline flows are near capacity. Meanwhile, at least 35 million tons of new LNG capacity is set to come online globally, pressuring prices. Asian spot LNG prices are forecast to average $9–$9.50 per MMBtu, down from above $12 last year.