EIA STEO: Brent Oil Seen at $58 in 2026, $53 in 2027 as Global Supply Surplus Expands

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): Global crude oil prices are projected to decline through 2026 and 2027 as accelerating production growth outstrips demand, leading to inventory builds and a looser market balance, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) February 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

The EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $58 per barrel in 2026, significantly down from an estimated $69 per barrel in 2025, before slipping further to around $53 per barrel in 2027. This downward trend reflects expectations of a global supply surplus and rising inventories over the forecast period.

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While near-term prices saw support from winter-related disruptions and geopolitical risks, including volatility over recent US policy actions toward Iran, the EIA anticipates expanding supply from non-OPEC producers and overall production growth will push markets into surplus conditions later in the forecast horizon.

The agency estimates that worldwide oil inventory builds will average 3.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, compared to a 2.7 million b/d build in 2025, before easing to 2.7 million b/d in 2027. Strategic stockpiling, notably in China, and OPEC+ policy actions are expected to help limit price declines despite oversupply pressures.

EIA also noted that recent policy changes allowing broader transport of Venezuelan crude could help restore output and temper downward price momentum through mid-2026.