Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said a ceasefire is the main downside risk to the outlook for oil prices while sustained damage to Russia's oil infrastructure is a significant upside risk.
Rystad Energy said in a note that such a move could put at risk Venezuela's 1.1 million barrels per day of crude oil production, which it supplies mostly to China.
India has also emerged as the top buyer of seaborne Russian oil despite Western sanctions imposed after Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Previously, expectations of an end to the war had pressured prices lower, as traders anticipated a deal would involve ending sanctions on Russia and allow Russian oil back into an already oversupplied global market.
State-run Indian Oil Corp has placed orders to buy Russian oil from non-sanctioned entities, while Bharat Petroleum Corp is in an advanced stage of negotiations for Russian oil imports.
