EIA Widens 2026 Global Oil Deficit Forecast Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): The U.S. Energy Information Administration just made a big revision to its outlook for the 2026 global oil deficit. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency points to ongoing turmoil around the Strait of Hormuz as the main reason for tightening conditions.

In May’s update, the EIA now expects global oil demand to outpace supply by 2.56 million barrels per day this year. That’s much higher than the slim 0.3 million barrel-per-day gap they estimated in April.

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The agency predicts it’ll reach a high point of 8.47 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, drop to 4.42 million in the third quarter, and then flip to a surplus of nearly 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, once supply starts bouncing back.

Their outlook assumes the Strait of Hormuz gets cleared up by late May, letting oil flows return to normal. They’re also counting on the U.S. tapping its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to boost global supply.

Brent crude should hover near $106 a barrel in May and June. Prices are expected to step down to $89 a barrel by the end of 2026 as the market settles and stocks rebuild.

The EIA also looks a step further, expecting an even bigger oil surplus in 2027—almost 3.9 million barrels per day. As production catches up and inventories fill back up, Brent prices could dip further, averaging around $79 a barrel.