EIA: Renewables could overtake natural gas output in 2027
U.S. Renewable Power Generation Rises 10% Through August
U.S. electricity generation from renewable energy sources increased 10.2% during the first eight months of 2026, reaching 28.1% of total power production as solar, wind and battery-storage capacity continued to expand rapidly.
By Carolina Curiel
Published October 28, 2026
What Readers Should Know
- Renewable electricity generation rose 10.2% from January through August compared with the same period of 2025.
- Renewables supplied 28.1% of total U.S. electricity generation during the period.
- Wind and solar together produced 21.1% of U.S. electricity.
- Renewable generating capacity increased by approximately 43.5 GW during the 12 months through August.
- Utility-scale battery storage capacity increased by approximately 17.6 GW.
- SUN DAY Campaign estimates renewables could surpass natural gas in installed generating capacity by summer 2027 if small-scale solar continues growing at roughly its recent pace.
MONTREAL (Oil Monster): Renewable electricity continues to gain ground in the U.S. power system, with solar and wind driving both generation growth and new generating capacity.
An analysis of the Energy Information Administration's latest Electric Power Monthly data by the SUN DAY Campaign found renewable electricity generation increased 10.2% during January through August compared with the same period last year.
Renewables, including hydropower, solar, wind, biomass and geothermal, supplied approximately 28.1% of total U.S. electricity generation during the first eight months of 2026, up from 26.2% a year earlier.
U.S. Renewable Power Snapshot
Renewable generation growth: +10.2%
Share of total generation: 28.1%
Wind share: 10.6%
Solar share: Nearly 10.5%
Wind + solar: 21.1% of total U.S. generation
Solar Leads Renewable Generation Growth
Utility-scale solar generation increased 20% during the first eight months of 2026 compared with the same period last year, while estimated small-scale solar generation rose 12%.
Wind generation increased 7.8%, conventional hydropower rose 4.2% and geothermal generation increased 3.8%.
By comparison, natural gas-fired electricity generation increased 2.6% and nuclear generation rose 1.3%. Coal-fired generation declined 8.7%.
Wind and solar together generated approximately 662,486 GWh through August, exceeding both coal and nuclear generation during the period.
Renewable Capacity Added 43.5 GW in One Year
The capacity numbers show an equally significant shift, but they should be distinguished from electricity generation.
Between September 2025 and August 2026, U.S. renewable generating capacity increased by approximately 43.5 GW.
Utility-scale solar accounted for about 27.1 GW of that growth, while small-scale solar added roughly 6.5 GW and wind increased by nearly 10 GW.
Utility-scale battery storage added another 17.6 GW during the same 12-month period.
Capacity Added: Sept. 2025-Aug. 2026
Utility-scale solar: +27.1 GW
Small-scale solar: +6.5 GW
Wind: +10.0 GW
Total renewables: +43.5 GW
Battery storage: +17.6 GW
Renewable Capacity Could Surpass Natural Gas in 2027
As of September 1, renewable sources represented approximately 34.5% of U.S. utility-scale generating capacity.
EIA project data indicate utility-scale renewables could increase that share to approximately 37.3% by August 2027, led primarily by another 44.6 GW of utility-scale solar additions.
The SUN DAY Campaign estimates that when small-scale solar is included, renewable capacity could reach approximately 550 GW by late summer 2027, compared with projected natural gas capacity of roughly 518 GW.
That calculation assumes at least another 6 GW of small-scale solar is added during the coming year, based on recent installation trends.
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Capacity overtaking natural gas would not mean renewables immediately generate more electricity than natural gas.
Natural gas plants generally operate at higher capacity factors than wind and solar facilities and can generate electricity when needed rather than only when weather conditions allow.
EIA's current outlook still expects natural gas to provide a substantially larger share of actual U.S. electricity generation in 2027, even as renewable installed capacity grows more quickly.
Battery Storage Growth Supports More Solar
EIA expects utility-scale battery storage capacity to increase by another 23.7 GW through August 2027, bringing total battery capacity to approximately 77.8 GW.
Storage is becoming increasingly important as solar represents a larger share of power capacity because batteries can move electricity generated during high-solar periods into hours when demand remains high but solar output falls.
The combination of renewables and battery storage is therefore expanding faster than any other major category of U.S. power infrastructure.
Natural Gas Still Has a Major Role
The rapid growth of renewable capacity does not mean natural gas demand is disappearing from the U.S. power market.
EIA expects natural gas-fired generation to remain substantial as overall electricity demand rises, including increased consumption from data centers and industrial projects.
The emerging U.S. power system is therefore adding large volumes of solar, wind and battery storage while continuing to rely on natural gas for dispatchable generation and periods of high demand.
The Bottom Line
Renewables are growing considerably faster than the broader U.S. electricity system, led by solar and wind, while battery storage is expanding alongside them.
The most significant milestone ahead is in installed capacity: if current solar growth continues, total renewable capacity could surpass natural gas capacity by summer 2027.
That should not be confused with electricity generation, where natural gas is still expected to remain the largest individual U.S. source.
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U.S. Natural Gas Output and Demand to Hit New Records Through 2027
Courtesy: Solar Power World
Data verification: U.S. Energy Information Administration and SUN DAY Campaign.