JPMorgan, HSBC say oil supplies are recovering from Middle East disruption

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): The global oil market has moved back into surplus after months of disruption caused by ​US-Israeli war with Iran, JPMorgan said in a note on Wednesday, ‌while HSBC raised its forecasts for Saudi Aramco crude oil production.

• JPMorgan estimates the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in ​September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October, nearly matching ​last year's average of 1.3 million bpd
• The bank said inventories ⁠and trade flows both indicated that excess barrels are returning to the ​market, with global crude imports rising to 44.9 million bpd in October, ​up 1.3 million bpd from a year earlier
• Middle East oil exports have recovered to about 20.7 million bpd from 9.8 million in March, though volumes remained lower ​than levels before the Iran began at the end of February
• Rising output ​elsewhere has also contributed
• The bank estimates that Latin America alone has supplied about 1.5 ‌million ⁠bpd more crude than a year ago, led by Brazil, Venezuela, Guyana and Argentina
• The bank said global demand had fallen by an estimated 3.3 million bpd since the start of the conflict, as high fuel prices ​and supply disruptions ​curbed consumption
• HSBC raised ⁠its fourth-quarter 2026 Saudi Aramco crude production forecast to 8.3 million bpd from 6.3 million, citing faster-than-expected export ​recovery
• The bank raised its 2027 production forecast to 9.8 ​million ⁠bpd from 8.8 million and said it expects output to return to about 10 million bpd by mid-2027
• HSBC said October Saudi crude exports recovered to ⁠about ​7 million bpd, near pre-conflict levels
• It said ​recovering Middle East crude exports suggested supply disruptions from the conflict have eased

Courtesy: www.reuters.com