OPEC Output Jumps 1.38M Bpd, Reaches 90% of Pre-War Level
OPEC Output Jumps 1.38M Bpd, Reaches 90% of Pre-War Level
SEATTLE (Oil Monster): OPEC crude oil production increased sharply in October as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq restored output despite continued export constraints linked to the Iran conflict.
- 22.87M bpd — OPEC October crude production
- +1.38M bpd — increase from September
- 25.48M bpd — February pre-war production
- 90% — October output versus February
- 2.61M bpd — remaining gap to February output
OPEC Restores 1.38 Million Bpd in One Month
Crude production from OPEC's 11 members rose by 1.38 million barrels per day in October to 22.87 million bpd, according to a Reuters survey based on oil-flow tracking data and information from oil companies, OPEC officials and consultants.
The largest increases came from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq as Middle Eastern producers continued restoring output following severe disruptions earlier in the year.
Production Returns to 90% of Pre-War Level
OPEC's 11 members produced 25.48 million barrels per day in February, the last full month before the Iran conflict disrupted Middle Eastern exports and production.
October production therefore recovered to approximately 90% of that level.
The remaining gap is about 2.61 million barrels per day.
The October rebound shows how quickly Middle Eastern supply is returning, but the recovery is not complete. OPEC remains about 2.61 million bpd below February production even after adding 1.38 million bpd in October. That distinction matters because the market is simultaneously seeing much more supply while still carrying unresolved Gulf export and shipping risks.
Quota Pause Did Not Mean Flat Production
Seven OPEC+ producers had agreed to keep required production levels unchanged in October after increasing quotas each month since April.
Actual output still rose sharply because producers were restoring barrels that had previously been lost or constrained by the Middle East conflict rather than responding to a new October quota increase.
Also Read:
- Global Oil Surplus Widens to 1.4M Bpd as Gulf Exports Recover
- Kuwait Oil Output Jumps Despite Hormuz Attacks
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq Lead Recovery
The October survey reinforces recent evidence that major Gulf producers are restoring production as export routes and shipping conditions improve.
Kuwait, for example, raised output to approximately 2.1 million barrels per day in October, up more than 300,000 bpd from September, while Saudi production and exports also continued recovering.
Higher OPEC Supply Adds to Surplus Concerns
The production recovery comes as the broader global oil balance is loosening.
JPMorgan estimates global oil supply exceeded demand by approximately 1.4 million barrels per day in October as Middle East exports recovered and demand weakened.
The combination of rising OPEC output, improving Gulf exports and additional supply from other producing regions is increasing pressure on crude prices.
What Happens Next
The next major OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for November 29, when the wider producer group is expected to focus on future supply policy and 2027 production baselines.
The market will also be watching whether OPEC output continues moving back toward February levels or whether export constraints around the Strait of Hormuz slow the recovery.
Courtesy: www.reuters.com