BMI Foresees Dip in Australia’s LNG Exports

The bearish near-term outlook for Australian LNG exports is also due to the weak production guidance by Santos for the current year.

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): According to projections made by analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Australia are likely to witness a drop in 2024, following the previous year’s trend. It must be noted that the exports had hit record high in 2022.

As per report, the Australian LNG exports during the current year are estimated to dip to 3.425 trillion cubic feet. This compares with the peak production of 3.567 trillion cubic feet reported in 2022. The projected dip in exports is mainly on account of delays in feed gas supply for the Darwin LNG project and the LNG production train shutdown at the Northwest Shelf (NWS) LNG.

The 2023 LNG exports had registered decline to 3.531 trillion cubic feet, due to lower production from the NWS LNG, loss of feed gas supply from the Bayu-Undan field and the maintenance shutdown of Shell’s Prelude LNG project. Although Prelude LNG has completed maintenance, the downside risks from the other two factors are likely to persist, BMI noted.

The bearish near-term outlook for Australian LNG exports is also due to the weak production guidance by Santos for the current year. Also, anticipated rebound in natural gas consumption will boost LNG supplies to domestic market, thus impacting exports.

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