Nigeria: Crude Oil Production Shortfall Leads to Huge Loss in Revenue

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): Nigeria recorded a crude oil production deficit of roughly 93.74 million barrels in the first eight months of 2025, resulting in an estimated revenue loss of $6.85 billion. Oil income remains a central pillar of Nigeria’s national budget, making the shortfall a significant fiscal setback.

Based on the 2025 budget benchmark price of $75 per barrel, the shortfall would rise to approximately $7.03 billion. However, data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that Bonny Light crude averaged $73.06 per barrel over the period, which served as the reference price for loss estimation.

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Figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reveal that total crude oil and condensate production between January and August reached 406.84 million barrels, nearly 18% below the budget target of 500.58 million barrels. This translates to an average daily production of 1.67 million barrels, indicating a shortfall of around 390,000 barrels per day.

If the downward trend persists through the rest of 2025, Nigeria could face an additional loss of 47.58 million barrels, equating to an extra $3.56 billion in forgone oil earnings.