Crude oil futures decline as markets assess OPEC decision to pause output hikes

SEATTLE (Oil Monster):  Crude oil futures traded lower on Tuesday morning as markets assessed the decision by OPEC+ (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies) to pause production hikes, even as oversupply concerns continued.

At 9.57 am on Tuesday, January Brent oil futures were at $64.71, down by 0.28 per cent, and December crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $60.90, down by 0.25 per cent. November crude oil futures were trading at INR5409 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of INR5447, down by 0.70 per cent, and December futures were trading at INR5405 against the previous close of INR5441, down by 0.66 per cent.

On Sunday, OPEC+ decided to implement a production hike of 1,37,000 barrels per day in December 2025. However, it decided to pause production increments in January, February, and March 2026.

In their Commodities Feed, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think, and Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist, said the market is expected to be in peak surplus through the first quarter of 2026, so a pause production hikes makes sense.

“However, given recent US sanctions on Russia, there is plenty of uncertainty as to the size of this surplus. If these sanctions disrupt Russian oil flows, it will eat into the expected surplus early next year, providing OPEC+ the opportunity to rethink its production policy in the early part of 2026. Russian oil flows in the coming weeks will be watched closely, particularly following the end of the wind-down period on November 21 for transactions with Rosneft and Lukoil,” they said.

November nickel futures were trading at INR1,288.50 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of INR1,313.30, down by 1.89 per cent.

On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange, November guargum contracts were trading at INR8,731 in the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of INR8,694, up by 0.43 per cent.

December turmeric (farmer polished) futures were trading at INR14,532 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of INR14,674, down by 0.97 per cent.

 Courtesy: www.thehindubusinessline.com