NUPRC: Nigeria’s November Oil Production Declines 5.9% Amid Theft, Operational Challenges

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): Nigeria’s crude oil production recorded a notable decline in November 2025, raising fresh concerns over the country’s ability to meet its fiscal and output targets.

The most recent data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that total oil output, including condensate, fell by 5.9 percent year-on-year to an average of 1.599 million barrels per day (bpd), compared with 1.698 million bpd in November 2024.

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The figures also reflect a sharp month-on-month drop, as production slipped from 1.698 million bpd in October 2025 to 1.599 million bpd in November. According to the NUPRC’s December 2025 Crude Oil and Condensate Production Report, daily production in November ranged between a low of 1.54 million bpd and a peak of 1.79 million bpd. Average output stood at 96 percent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd, comprising 1.436 million bpd of crude oil and 163,049 bpd of condensate.

While the regulator did not specify the causes of the decline, industry sources continue to point to oil theft and operational disruptions as key challenges. The development comes as the Central Bank of Nigeria adopts ambitious benchmarks of 1.71 million bpd and $55 per barrel for the 2026 budget, targets analysts warn may be difficult to achieve amid softer global oil prices.