TotalEnergies Expects Stable Q4 2025, Driven by Strong Refining Margins

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): Paris-based TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) anticipates its fourth-quarter 2025 results will remain largely consistent with last year, as gains from fuel refining margins and proceeds from renewable asset sales offset weaker oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices.

In a trading statement, the company highlighted that cash flow from its business segments is expected to stay stable, supported by growth in upstream production and continued improvement in downstream operations.

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Shares rose 0.73% to €56.54 in morning trading, outperforming the broader European energy sector, which declined 1.2%. Analysts note that TotalEnergies’ results buck the declining trend seen across other energy majors, with RBC’s Biraj Borkhataria pointing out that the company’s fourth-quarter cash flow from operations remained flat year-on-year, compared with Shell’s 19% drop.

European refining margins surged to $85.7 per metric ton, a 231% increase from the previous year, aided by U.S. sanctions and EU restrictions on Russian oil. TotalEnergies also reported 5% growth in upstream production, while integrated LNG results remained in line with Q3 2025, despite an 18% year-on-year price decline and Ichthys project maintenance.