U.S. Oil Output to Hit Record 14.3M Bpd in 2027

U.S. crude oil production is on track to set a record in 2026 and climb to another all-time high in 2027 after the Energy Information Administration raised its production forecasts in the September Short-Term Energy Outlook.

By Carolina Curiel
Published September 24, 2026

MONTREAL (Oil Monster): The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its forecasts for domestic crude oil production in 2026 and 2027, with output now expected to set consecutive annual records.

In its September Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts U.S. crude production, including lease condensate, will average 13.83 million barrels per day in 2026 and increase to 14.26 million barrels per day in 2027.

The previous August outlook projected 13.80 million barrels per day in 2026 and 14.15 million barrels per day in 2027.

U.S. Crude Production Set for New Record in 2026

EIA says U.S. crude production is on track to surpass the previous annual record in 2026.

The agency’s latest data put 2025 production at approximately 13.66 million barrels per day. The 2026 forecast of 13.83 million barrels per day would therefore establish a new annual high.

EIA said crude production averaged approximately 13.7 million barrels per day during the first half of 2026, about 300,000 barrels per day higher than during the same period of 2025.

Much of that growth has been concentrated in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico and the Federal Gulf of America.

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Production Could Reach 14.39 Million Bpd in Late 2027

The quarterly forecast points to continued growth through the end of the outlook period.

At 14.39 million barrels per day, fourth-quarter 2027 production would stand well above the annual production level recorded in 2025, although a quarterly forecast should not be directly treated as an annual average.

Lower 48 Drives the Next Leg of Production Growth

EIA expects the Lower 48 states, excluding the Federal Gulf of America, to remain by far the largest source of U.S. crude production.

The regional figures show that the projected increase from 2026 to 2027 is being driven primarily by the Lower 48 states outside the Federal Gulf, with additional growth from Alaska partly offset by lower Federal Gulf production.

Permian Production Continues to Support U.S. Output

EIA separately forecasts Permian crude production at approximately 6.8 million barrels per day in 2026, about 3% higher than in 2025.

The agency said higher crude prices have supported oil-directed drilling in the Permian while continued improvements in drilling productivity have also contributed to U.S. production growth.

West Texas Intermediate crude averaged about $84 per barrel through August 2026, according to EIA, compared with an average of approximately $65 per barrel in 2025.

Federal Gulf Adds Supply in 2026 Before 2027 Decline

EIA expects Federal Gulf of America crude production to average approximately 2.00 million barrels per day in 2026.

Production growth during the first half of 2026 was supported by several projects that entered service over the previous year, including Shenandoah, Ballymore, Whale and Salamanca.

Despite those additions, the September STEO projects annual Federal Gulf production will ease to approximately 1.89 million barrels per day in 2027.

September Forecast Is Higher Than August

The September revision is relatively modest for 2026 but more significant for next year.

EIA raised its 2026 forecast by approximately 30,000 barrels per day, from 13.80 million to 13.83 million barrels per day.

The agency increased the 2027 forecast by approximately 110,000 barrels per day, from 14.15 million to 14.26 million barrels per day.

On a full-year basis, a 110,000-barrel-per-day difference is equivalent to approximately 40.2 million barrels, illustrating the scale of the latest forecast revision.

Forecast Remains Sensitive to Oil Prices and Operations

The figures remain forecasts and could change as crude prices, drilling activity, well productivity and offshore project performance evolve.

EIA finalized the inputs for its September STEO on September 3, meaning the forecast does not specifically incorporate market developments after that date.