EIA Raises Oil Price Forecasts as Global Stocks Fall

The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its oil price forecasts as global inventories fell by about 400 million barrels and Middle East supply disruptions remained elevated.

By Carolina Curiel
Published September 10, 2026

EIA Raises Oil Price Outlook

MONTREAL (Oil Monster): The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 as global stockpiles declined sharply amid reduced Middle East supply during the Iran conflict.

Higher oil and fuel prices have been among the clearest signs of pressure on global energy markets after more than six months of conflict, which has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and affected energy infrastructure across the region.

Global Oil Inventories Fall by About 400 Million Barrels

Global oil inventories have fallen by approximately 400 million barrels so far this year and are expected to decline further through the end of 2026, according to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The agency expects significant volumes of Middle East production and exports to remain offline through year-end.

Brent Forecast Raised to About $91 Per Barrel

The EIA now expects Brent crude oil spot prices to average about $91 per barrel in 2026, nearly 5% above its previous forecast.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is forecast to average $84.65 per barrel this year, also representing an increase of nearly 5% from the prior outlook.

Middle East Oil Flows Expected to Recover Gradually

The EIA expects Middle East oil flows to increase in the coming months as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz gradually improve and exporters make greater use of alternatives such as ship-to-ship transfers.

However, the agency cautioned that both Hormuz traffic and alternative shipping arrangements remain dependent on developments in the conflict.

Forecast Predates Latest Escalation

The EIA finalized its September forecast on September 3, before the latest escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions.

Subsequent attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel on Wednesday.

Middle East Output Shut-Ins Reach 6.7 Million Bpd

Middle East oil production shut-ins increased to 6.7 million barrels per day in August, up from 5 million bpd in July, the EIA said.

Attacks affecting Saudi oil exports through the Bab el-Mandeb and lower ship departures from the Yanbu port on the Red Sea contributed to the increase.

Supply Disruptions Expected to Continue Into 2027

The EIA expects Middle East output shut-ins to average about 5.7 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter.

Regional oil production and exports are not expected to return to pre-conflict levels until the second quarter of 2027.

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Courtesy: www.reuters.com