EIA Expects Global Oil Inventories to Continue to Rise Through 2026

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a steady increase in global oil inventories through 2026 — a trend that could place downward pressure on oil prices in the near term.

According to the agency’s projections, Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $54 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and $55 per barrel for the full year. This forecast is $3 higher than last month’s estimate, primarily reflecting updated assumptions about China’s inventory builds and ongoing sanctions affecting Russian oil exports.

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On the natural gas front, the EIA anticipates the Henry Hub spot price to average nearly $3.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the upcoming winter season from November through March, rising to $4.00/MMBtu in 2026. The increase—around 16% higher than 2025 levels—is largely driven by expanding U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports amid relatively flat domestic production.

The U.S. is projected to export 14.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG in 2025, marking a 25% increase from 2024. EIA expects exports to climb a further 10% in 2026, underscoring the nation’s growing role in the global LNG market.