SEATTLE (Oil Monster): The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its October 2025 Oil Market Report (OMR), reported that global oil demand increased by 750,000 barrels per day (kb/d) in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year. Despite this rise, the agency noted that oil consumption is expected to remain subdued through the rest of 2025 and into 2026.
On the supply side, the IEA highlighted that global oil output climbed by 760 kb/d month-on-month, reaching 108 million barrels per day (mb/d) in September 2025. The increase was primarily driven by a 1 mb/d surge in OPEC+ production, led by Middle Eastern producers. The report forecasts that world oil supply is on track to grow by 3 mb/d in 2025 to 106.1 mb/d, followed by an additional 2.4 mb/d rise in 2026.
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The OMR also revealed that global observed oil inventories rose by 17.7 million barrels (mb) in August, hitting a four-year high of 7,909 mb. OECD inventories grew by 22 mb, while non-OECD stocks increased by 4 mb. Most of these builds were concentrated in crude stocks in China and gas liquids in the United States.
Looking ahead, the IEA cautioned that loss of Russian product supplies, EU restrictions on imports derived from Russian feedstocks, and recent refinery capacity closures could tighten product markets in the coming months.
