Shell Projects Q4 2025 Production Growth, Higher LNG Volumes, and Refining Margins

SEATTLE (Oil Monster):Shell projects its Upstream production to increase to 1.84–1.94 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboe/d) in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from 1.832 mmboe/d in Q3. This growth includes the impact of the Adura joint venture (JV) incorporation, reflecting Shell’s continued focus on operational efficiency and strategic asset integration.

In the Integrated Gas segment, Q3 production reached 934,000 boe/d, with Q4 volumes expected between 930,000–970,000 boe/d. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) liquefaction volumes are also projected to rise from 7.3 million tonnes (MT) in Q3 to 7.5–7.9 MT in Q4, driven by higher global LNG demand.

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Marketing sales volumes are forecast at 2.65–2.75 million barrels per day (mb/d), slightly lower than Q3’s 2.824 mb/d due to seasonal demand fluctuations.

Shell anticipates refining margins to improve to $14 per barrel, up from $12/bbl in Q3, while chemicals margins may soften to $140 per tonne. The Chemicals sub-segment is expected to post a significant Q4 loss from a non-cash deferred tax adjustment in a joint venture.

The company also expects a $1.5 billion cash outflow linked to emissions certificate payments in Germany. Shell remains committed to delivering cleaner, safer, and more efficient energy solutions globally, spanning Upstream, Integrated Gas, LNG, Renewables, and Energy Solutions.