SEATTLE (Oil Monster): Global oil markets were jolted after coordinated US-Israel strikes on Iran and Tehran’s aggressive retaliation heightened fears of a major supply disruption in the Middle East. Analysts warn that prolonged conflict near the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz could push crude prices above $100 per barrel, intensifying inflationary pressures worldwide.
ALSO READ:
Oil jumps 10% on Iran conflict and could spike to $100 a barrel
US and China hold the keys to containing an oil shock from war on Iran
Although Iran accounts for just 3–4% of global oil production—around 3.3 million barrels per day as OPEC’s fourth-largest producer—its geographic position near the chokepoint is critical. Roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption transits the narrow waterway between Oman and Iran, making any disruption a systemic risk to energy markets.
Brent Crude surged as much as 13% on March 2, the first trading session after the strikes, before easing to around $77 per barrel. Prices had already climbed to $72.48 last week amid stalled nuclear talks and escalating tensions.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, Iran holds about 12% of global oil reserves despite years of sanctions limiting output. Analysts from Barclays and Capital Economics estimate that Brent crude prices could climb to $100 per barrel if escalating tensions interrupt tanker movements or damage regional energy infrastructure, adding further pressure to an already fragile global economy.
