Oil falls as investors focus on potential Iran-US talks in Doha
Oil Dips Toward Second Monthly Loss as Investors Watch Potential Iran-U.S. Talks in Doha
Brent and WTI crude slipped Tuesday as markets weighed conflicting signals over whether U.S. and Iranian officials would meet in Doha — and what that could mean for a fragile ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz oil flows.
What Readers Should Know
- Brent August futures fell 0.9% to $72.51/bbl; the more active September contract was down 0.4% at $73.60/bbl.
- WTI for August dropped 0.6% to $70.36/bbl — both benchmarks are near pre-war levels from February 27.
- Brent is set for roughly a 22% monthly drop; WTI is on track for an approximately 19% decline from the May 29 close.
- Iran and Oman will begin talks on redefining Hormuz transit paths, but Iran denied any direct U.S. meetings in the coming days.
- President Trump said the Doha meeting could be important — or not — calling the outcome uncertain.
- Analysts flag cautious market sentiment and unresolved questions around Chinese crude demand.
MONTREAL (Oil Monster): Oil prices dipped on Tuesday and were poised for a second month of declines, with investors eyeing potential U.S.-Iran talks in Doha amid a strained interim ceasefire in the four-month-old war.
Brent August crude futures, which expire on Tuesday, were down 0.9%, or 64 cents, at $72.51 a barrel as of 0356 GMT — around $20, or 22%, lower than last month's closing. The more actively traded September contract was down 0.4%, or 31 cents, at $73.60 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for August fell 0.6%, or 39 cents, to $70.36 a barrel. Prices are set for around a $17 drop, or 19%, from the May 29 closing.
Both Brent and WTI prices are almost back at pre-war levels from February 27.
Also Read
Oil Climbs Following Renewed U.S.-Iran Strikes in the Middle East Hormuz Oil Exodus Sets Stage for Chaotic Rebalancing ActMarket Cautiously Hopeful, But Hedging Its Bets
Analysts said the market was pricing in hopes of a positive Doha outcome, even as tangible signs of de-escalation remain limited.
"Investors are pricing in hopes of a positive outcome from the Doha talks, even though real normalisation of flows through the Strait of Hormuz is not yet visible," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
"The market is cautiously hopeful but still hedging its bets until we see more tangible signs of de-escalation," Waterer added.
Iran-Oman Transit Talks Ahead, But No Direct U.S. Meeting
Iranian and Omani experts will start talks on redefining transit paths through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told state TV on Monday, adding that Iran will try to obstruct vessels outside the defined paths.
However, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said there will not be any negotiation meetings at any level with the American side in the coming days.
Trump: Doha Meeting May or May Not Be Important
"The meeting in Doha is going to be perhaps important, perhaps not. We're going to find out," U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.
The uncertainty over whether the two sides would meet highlighted the fragility of a June 17 agreement to pause fighting — a conflict that has disrupted global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and poses a political challenge for Trump ahead of November's congressional elections.
China Demand Uncertainty Adds Further Pressure
Beyond the geopolitical uncertainty, some analysts flagged softer-than-expected demand from China as an additional weight on prices.
"We wait for more evidence of a rise in Chinese buying but cannot yet bet on a big return to the market from the world's largest crude importer," said Neil Crosby, head of research at Sparta Commodities.
Middle East Producers Continue Loading Despite Fresh Attacks
Meanwhile, Middle East producers pushed ahead with loading oil and LNG despite fresh ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed strikes between the U.S. and Iran in recent days, shipping data showed.
Traffic last week hit its highest level since the conflict began at the end of February.
Frequently Asked Questions — Oil Prices & Iran-U.S. Doha Talks
Why did oil prices fall on Tuesday, July 1, 2026?
Oil prices dipped on uncertainty over whether U.S. and Iranian officials would hold talks in Doha, combined with a fragile interim ceasefire and lingering questions about Chinese crude demand.
Where did Brent and WTI crude trade on Tuesday?
Brent August futures were at $72.51/bbl, down 0.9%, while the September contract was at $73.60/bbl, down 0.4%. WTI for August fell 0.6% to $70.36/bbl.
How much have oil prices fallen over the past month?
Brent was on track for roughly a 22% monthly decline from the May 29 closing, and WTI was set for an approximately 19% drop over the same period.
What did Iran say about Strait of Hormuz transit talks?
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Iran and Oman would begin talks on redefining transit paths through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. Iran added it would try to obstruct vessels outside defined paths.
Are Middle East oil producers still exporting despite the conflict?
Yes. Shipping data showed Middle East producers continued loading oil and LNG despite fresh ship attacks and U.S.-Iran strikes. Strait of Hormuz traffic last week reached its highest level since the conflict began in late February.
Explore More on OilMonster
Courtesy: www.reuters.com