BofA Securities has revised its Brent crude oil outlook upward for H2 2026 and expects a gradual price decline into 2027, reflecting easing geopolitical tensions and improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
MONTREAL (Oil Monster): BofA Securities has projected that Brent crude oil will average $72 per barrel during the second half of 2026, before easing to $65 per barrel in 2027. The revised outlook reflects improving geopolitical conditions and a recovery in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — developments that have provided immediate relief to global energy markets.
Crude oil prices have registered sharp declines from their earlier highs, primarily due to easing tensions in West Asia and renewed cargo shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. According to S&P Global, shipping volumes have rebounded significantly following the establishment of a new safe transit corridor along the Omani coast.
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The firm expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by around 75 basis points in 2026, starting in September, primarily due to persistent inflation and a resilient labor market.
BofA also upgraded its outlook for the Indian economy, raising its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 7%, up from 6.2% projected in April.
The brokerage lifted its growth forecast for emerging Asia excluding China to 5.9% in 2026, up from a prior estimate of 4.9%, with growth expected at 5.8% in 2027. BofA projects global economic growth of 3.2% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027.
BofA Securities projects Brent crude oil will average $72 per barrel during the second half of 2026.
BofA expects Brent crude to ease to $65 per barrel in 2027, reflecting a gradual normalization as geopolitical conditions improve and Hormuz oil flows recover.
Prices have declined primarily due to easing tensions in West Asia and renewed cargo shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, including via a new safe transit corridor along the Omani coast, according to S&P Global.
BofA expects the Fed to raise interest rates by around 75 basis points in 2026, beginning in September, driven by persistent inflation and a resilient labor market.
BofA raised its India GDP growth forecast to 7% for 2026 (up from 6.2% in April) and projects global economic growth of 3.2% in 2026, rising to 3.5% in 2027.
