Bunker Holding Sees Marine Fuel Sales Dip in 2026
Bunker Holding Sees Marine Fuel Sales Dip as Shipping Routes Shift
MONTREAL (Oil Monster): Bunker Holding expects global marine fuel sales to decline slightly in 2026 as Middle East disruption, reduced Suez traffic and changing shipping routes reshape where vessels refuel around the world.
The world's largest marine fuel supplier by volume expects sales of just under 24 million metric tons this year, slightly below its 2025 level, Chief Operating Officer Mikkel Kannegaard said at the Singapore International Bunkering Conference.
The overall decline masks a significant regional shift. Bunker Holding is seeing weaker demand around the Middle East while sales increase in South Asia and parts of Africa as vessels alter routes to avoid high-risk waterways.
- Bunker Holding expects 2026 marine fuel sales to finish just below 24 million metric tons.
- Reduced shipping activity out of the Middle East has weakened bunker demand in the region.
- Lower Suez Canal traffic and vessel rerouting have shifted refueling demand toward other ports.
- India and wider South Asia are becoming more important bunker markets for the company.
- Africa has gained bunker demand as ships reroute around the Cape of Good Hope.
- High bunker prices have encouraged some operators to buy only the fuel they immediately need.
- Slow steaming has also contributed to lower fuel consumption.
- Bunker Holding says the durability of Africa's recent demand gains remains uncertain if Suez traffic normalizes.
The headline is a slight decline in global sales, but the more important signal is geographic. Ships avoiding the Middle East and Red Sea still need fuel. They are simply buying it somewhere else.
That is creating new demand around India and the Cape of Good Hope while weakening traditional bunkering patterns around Gulf and Suez-linked routes. For fuel suppliers, the disruption is becoming a port-location story as much as a volume story.
Track bunker fuel prices across global ports →Bunker Holding Expects Sales Just Below 24 Million Tonnes
Bunker Holding expects its total 2026 marine fuel sales to finish slightly below the nearly 24 million metric tons sold in 2025.
Kannegaard said the decline reflects a more fragmented bunker market following the U.S.-Iran conflict and the disruption of important Middle Eastern trade routes.
The expected reduction is relatively modest, but the routes and ports where fuel is being purchased have changed significantly.
Middle East Shipping Disruption Weighs on Bunker Demand
Reduced maritime traffic from the Arabian Gulf has lowered marine fuel demand at several traditional bunkering locations.
Blockades, tanker attacks and other security risks have altered vessel movements through the region, while reduced Middle Eastern fuel-oil exports have also tightened bunker supply.
Kannegaard said lower Gulf traffic has directly reduced the amount of marine fuel sold in the region.
ALSO READ: Hormuz Tanker Attacks Threaten Gulf Oil Export Recovery
Suez Traffic Decline Changes Refueling Patterns
Bunker Holding has also seen less vessel traffic through the Suez Canal.
Ships avoiding security risks around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb have increasingly used longer routes around southern Africa.
That changes not only voyage distances but also the ports where ships need to replenish marine fuel.
A vessel that previously bunkered near the Middle East or Mediterranean may instead require fuel in South or West Africa when sailing around the Cape of Good Hope.
India Is Becoming a Larger Bunker Hub
South Asia has been one of the beneficiaries of the changing trade routes.
Kannegaard said India in particular is becoming a larger bunker market for Bunker Holding.
The country's location near major east-west shipping routes gives Indian ports an opportunity to capture refueling demand as vessel patterns become more fragmented.
Demand has also moved more broadly toward Asian bunkering centers as shipping companies adapt to disruptions in the Middle East.
ALSO READ: Track Current Bunker Fuel Prices Across India
Africa Gains From Cape of Good Hope Rerouting
African bunkering locations have also recorded stronger demand as more vessels sail around the Cape of Good Hope.
Bunker Holding said its business in Africa has performed well, with additional opportunities emerging in both South and West Africa.
The longer route requires vessels to reconsider fuel planning, creating demand at ports that previously captured a smaller share of east-west shipping traffic.
African Demand May Depend on Continued Rerouting
It remains unclear how much of the recent African bunker growth will persist if ships return to the Suez Canal in larger numbers.
Kannegaard noted that African ports are not generally the lowest-cost locations to bunker vessels.
Much of the current demand therefore reflects operational necessity created by longer routes rather than a permanent preference among shipowners.
Even so, Bunker Holding expects bunker demand in Africa to grow over the next decade as regional investment, trade and business activity expand.
ALSO READ: Track Middle East and Africa Bunker Fuel Prices
High Fuel Prices Have Changed Buying Behavior
High marine fuel prices have also affected how shipping companies purchase bunker fuel.
Kannegaard said there was a period when customers were buying only the volumes required for immediate operations rather than carrying larger inventories onboard.
This type of purchasing behavior can reduce individual bunker stem sizes and make fuel availability at multiple ports more important.
Slow Steaming Is Reducing Fuel Consumption
Some vessel operators have also responded to high costs by slowing ships.
Slow steaming reduces fuel consumption because ships require substantially more engine power as sailing speed increases.
Bunker Holding has observed some customers adopting slower operating speeds, contributing to weaker fuel demand even when vessels continue sailing.
Distillate Supplies Tight in Parts of Asia
The composition of available marine fuel has also varied by region.
Kannegaard said distillate supplies have been tight in some parts of Asia, while fuel-oil availability has generally been more stable.
This distinction matters because different vessels use different grades depending on engine configuration, emissions requirements and operating conditions.
Bunker Buyers Increasingly Focus on Fuel Availability
Availability has become a more important factor in marine fuel procurement as supply chains fragment.
Industry participants at the 2026 Singapore International Bunkering Conference said some buyers are securing supplies months in advance and coordinating requirements across multiple ports rather than relying solely on spot purchases.
The change reflects uncertainty over whether the preferred fuel grade will be available when a vessel reaches a particular port.
Singapore Remains the World's Major Bunkering Hub
Singapore remains the world's leading ship-refueling center and a key price-setting location for Asian marine fuel markets.
The city-state is also becoming increasingly important for alternative marine fuels, including LNG.
PetroChina International carried out its first LNG bunker delivery in Singapore during the conference, while other suppliers are expanding LNG bunkering capability ahead of expected demand growth later this decade.
LNG Bunkering Continues to Expand
Singapore LNG bunker sales rose 21% year over year during the first nine months of 2026 to approximately 487,100 metric tons, according to Reuters.
Marine fuel suppliers are investing in LNG bunker vessels, storage and supply agreements as more dual-fuel ships enter service.
Conventional oil-based bunker fuels nevertheless continue to dominate total marine fuel demand.
Alternative Fuels Remain a Small Share of Today's Market
Bunker Holding and other suppliers continue investing in lower-carbon marine fuels, but conventional fuels still account for the overwhelming majority of current demand.
Bunker Holding's own sustainability reporting shows very-low-carbon fuels remain a small share of its total supplied energy even as the company expands alternative-fuel offerings.
The industry's longer-term challenge is therefore managing an energy transition while also responding to immediate concerns about supply security, price and shipping-route disruption.
Bunker Holding Operates Through Multiple Global Brands
Bunker Holding's group includes major marine fuel businesses such as Dan-Bunkering, Bunker One, Glander International, KPI OceanConnect and Unicore.
The group operates across more than 30 countries and serves shipping customers in major marine fuel markets worldwide.
Its scale makes changes in Bunker Holding's regional demand patterns a useful indicator of how global shipping disruptions are affecting the bunkering market.
Company Has Already Been Adapting to Shifting Trade Flows
Bunker Holding said earlier this year that geopolitical developments and changes in global trade flows had increased market complexity during its 2025–26 financial year.
The company responded by reorganizing parts of its supply and commercial operations to improve coordination across regions.
Its latest bunker-demand outlook shows that those trade shifts are continuing rather than disappearing.
Why the Bunker Market Matters Beyond Shipping
Bunker fuel is one of the key operating costs for global shipping.
Higher fuel prices, longer routes and additional refueling stops increase the cost of transporting commodities and manufactured goods around the world.
Those costs can eventually flow through supply chains to commodity buyers, manufacturers and consumers.
The location of bunker demand therefore provides another indicator of how geopolitical disruption is changing global trade routes and transportation costs.
What Happens Next
The direction of bunker demand will depend heavily on whether shipping traffic returns to the Suez Canal and whether security improves around the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz.
A sustained reopening of traditional routes could shift some demand away from African ports and back toward Middle Eastern and Mediterranean bunkering locations.
Continued disruption would likely reinforce the growing importance of India, South Asia and ports around the Cape of Good Hope.
Fuel prices will also influence vessel speeds, bunker volumes and the pace at which shipping companies adopt alternative marine fuels.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much marine fuel does Bunker Holding expect to sell in 2026?
Bunker Holding expects global marine fuel sales of just under 24 million metric tons, slightly below its 2025 volume.
Why are Bunker Holding's sales expected to decline?
The company cites lower shipping traffic from the Middle East, reduced Suez movements, high bunker prices and some slow steaming by customers.
Which bunker markets are growing?
Bunker Holding says demand has strengthened in Asia, particularly India, as well as in South and West Africa.
Why is bunker demand increasing in Africa?
More ships have been routing around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Red Sea security risks, creating additional refueling requirements at African ports.
Will African bunker demand remain elevated?
Bunker Holding says that is uncertain because some of the recent growth is tied to vessels avoiding Suez. The company nevertheless expects longer-term African bunker demand to grow.
What is bunker fuel?
Bunker fuel is marine fuel purchased by ships for propulsion and onboard energy use. It includes fuel oil, marine gasoil and increasingly alternative fuels such as LNG and biofuels.
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Sources: Reuters; Bunker Holding; Singapore International Bunkering Conference.
Courtesy: www.reuters.com