Saudi Red Sea Oil Exports Go Dark as Houthi Attacks Grow
Saudi crude loadings at the Red Sea port of Yanbu are increasingly disappearing from ship-tracking systems as tankers switch off AIS signals to avoid Houthi attacks, clouding visibility into how much crude is actually moving.
What Readers Should Know
- All recent Yanbu crude loadings were conducted "dark," with AIS tracking signals switched off, analysts say.
- The shift follows a Houthi maritime embargo declared July 20 and attacks on Saudi tankers, Yanbu facilities and the Jazan refinery.
- Ship-tracking firms Vortexa, Kpler and AXSMarine reported sharply different export estimates for the week beginning August 3.
- Bab al-Mandeb transits averaged about 32 vessels a day last week, down from roughly 50 before the blockade.
- Saudi Arabia is sending more crude north via the Suez Canal and Egypt's SUMED pipeline, with Sidi Kerir loadings hitting a record 2.17 million bpd.
- Saudi Aramco did not respond to a request for comment.
Why Saudi Tankers Are Going Dark
MONTREAL (Oil Monster): Saudi crude exports from the Red Sea are increasingly vanishing from view as tankers switch off tracking signals to avoid attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis, with analysts saying all recent Yanbu loadings have been conducted "dark."
The Houthis declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on July 20, opening a new front against the United States and its allies in the Iran war. Since then, they have claimed attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, Yanbu oil facilities and, most recently, the Jazan refinery on the Red Sea coast, prompting more vessels to operate without publicly visible tracking data.
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How Yanbu Loadings Have Changed
The growing use of so-called dark voyages is clouding visibility into Saudi oil exports, making it harder to assess the degree to which the Houthi threats may be disrupting crude flows. Ship-tracking firms have produced widely differing export estimates, data which is used by the International Energy Agency, OPEC and traders to assess global oil supply and forecast market trends.
In the week beginning August 3, data analytics firm Vortexa estimated Yanbu loadings fell to 2.38 million barrels per day from 2.71 million the previous week, while Kpler estimated a sharper drop to 1.78 million bpd from 4.04 million, and AXSMarine calculated a rise to 850,000 bpd from about 420,000 bpd. Saudi Aramco did not respond to a request for comment.
Why Ship-Tracking Estimates Diverge
Those trying to monitor shipments rely on a vessel re-appearing on tracking systems once it has left the high-risk area, using satellite data to cross-check movements and try to fill in the gaps.
"Last week Yanbu liftings were all conducted dark. We're not seeing any loadings with Automatic Identification System (AIS) on at the moment," Vortexa analyst George Morris said. Kpler analyst Nhway Khin Soe said about 70% of Saudi west coast loadings over the past few weeks were dark, adding that all Yanbu cargoes loaded since July 23 involved vessels without continuous AIS coverage.
Shipping traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea had already been affected by two years of sporadic Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. An average of 32 vessels a day transited the waterway last week, according to Kpler data, down from about 50 a day before the group announced its latest blockade.
How Saudi Arabia Is Rerouting Crude
Ship-tracking data shows that Saudi Arabia has been sending more oil north through the Red Sea, either via the Suez Canal or Egypt's SUMED pipeline, which links Ain Sokhna on the Red Sea to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast.
Crude and condensate loadings at Sidi Kerir averaged a record 2.17 million bpd last week, around 50% higher than the previous week, with about 90% of the total volumes Saudi crude, Vortexa's Morris said.
How Tanker Operators Are Responding
The cost of war risk insurance has jumped in recent days and tanker companies are also shifting their sailing strategies. Major tanker operator DHT previously exited the Red Sea via Bab al-Mandeb when lifting oil.
"That has become a bit more challenging as of late," DHT CEO Svein Moxnes Harfjeld said on an earnings call last week. "It's fair to say most of the VLCC (supertanker) loadings, not just ours, have been directed north, northwest now."
Courtesy: www.reuters.com
Oil Price Questions and Answers
What does it mean for a tanker to go "dark"?
It means the vessel switches off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) so its location and movements are not publicly visible on tracking systems.
Why are Yanbu loadings being conducted dark?
Analysts say vessels are switching off AIS to avoid Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, Yanbu oil facilities and the Jazan refinery.
How much do the tracking firms' export estimates differ?
For the week beginning August 3, Vortexa estimated Yanbu loadings at 2.38 million bpd, Kpler at 1.78 million bpd, and AXSMarine at 850,000 bpd.
How is Saudi Arabia rerouting crude around the Red Sea risk?
More oil is moving north via the Suez Canal or Egypt's SUMED pipeline to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean, which hit a record 2.17 million bpd last week.
How has traffic through Bab al-Mandeb changed?
Kpler data show average daily transits fell to about 32 vessels last week from roughly 50 a day before the Houthis announced their blockade.