MONTREAL (Oil Monster): Nigeria is proposing a ceiling of ₦1,350 per litre on the ex-gantry or landing cost of petrol as the government moves to limit sharp fuel-price swings caused by elevated crude prices and disruption in global energy markets.
The proposed mechanism would require refiners and fuel importers to absorb temporary costs above the ceiling and recover those losses later when crude prices, exchange rates or other market conditions improve.
Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Taiwo Oyedele said the arrangement is intended to smooth price volatility rather than reinstate Nigeria's former blanket petrol subsidy.
The proposed ₦1,350 level is not a nationwide retail pump-price cap.
Instead, the government is negotiating a ceiling on the cost at which petrol enters the domestic distribution system, either through imports or refinery loading racks.
If costs temporarily rise above the ceiling, participating refiners and importers would carry the difference and recover it later when market conditions allow.
Oyedele said the approach is intended to reduce the economic disruption caused by rapid swings in petrol prices.
Separately, NNPC Retail has agreed to forgo its retail profit margin for 30 days and sell petrol at cost.
The government said public and commercial transport operators would receive particular attention under the temporary initiative because fuel prices feed directly into transportation costs and the price of goods and services.
The measure does not require NNPC to sell petrol below its acquisition cost.
For example, the Presidency said that if NNPC's landing cost is ₦1,300 per litre, it would sell the fuel at that same price rather than adding its normal retail margin.
The Tinubu administration has stressed that the latest measures do not reverse the removal of Nigeria's broad petrol subsidy.
Officials describe the proposed ceiling as a price-smoothing mechanism designed to reduce sudden increases and decreases rather than hold petrol permanently below market cost.
The distinction is significant because Nigeria's government ended the former nationwide petrol subsidy in 2023 as part of a wider fiscal reform program.
Nigeria is also considering forward sales of crude oil to domestic refineries.
The approach could allow refiners to secure future feedstock at predetermined commercial terms, reducing exposure to sudden swings in international crude prices.
The government said additional domestic crude could become available as national production rises and previously committed barrels are freed up.
A more predictable feedstock cost could help reduce volatility in refinery gate prices and, ultimately, retail petrol prices.
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The intervention follows a sharp increase in Nigerian fuel prices as the global oil market responds to Middle East supply disruptions and tight refined-product availability.
Reuters reported in September that petrol had reached around ₦1,400 per litre in Lagos and Abuja and as much as ₦1,500 in some northern markets.
The increase came despite greater domestic refining capacity, illustrating that Nigerian fuel prices remain exposed to international crude values and exchange-rate movements.
Nigeria's downstream market has changed significantly since the expansion of the Dangote refinery.
Domestic production has reduced Nigeria's dependence on imported petroleum products while allowing the country to become a larger exporter of gasoline, diesel and other fuels.
OilMonster reported that Nigeria's seaborne petroleum-product exports increased sharply following the refinery's expansion, while imports declined.
However, locally refined fuel remains influenced by the international value of crude oil, meaning greater domestic refining capacity does not fully insulate Nigerian consumers from global energy shocks.
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The government is also considering an excess-profit tax or similar measures against energy-market participants found to be taking undue advantage of consumers during the current period of unusually high fuel prices.
Any proceeds could be directed toward targeted assistance, including transport support and relief for lower-income households.
No final tax framework has yet been announced.
Nigeria is also accelerating deployment of compressed natural gas as an alternative transportation fuel.
The government says more than 120,000 vehicles have already been converted or deployed to run on CNG.
Greater CNG adoption could reduce petrol demand, particularly in commercial transportation, and provide consumers with another option during periods of high gasoline prices.
Higher petrol prices have broader consequences for Nigeria because road transportation plays a major role in moving people, food and other goods across the country.
Rapid increases in pump prices can therefore feed into transportation costs and broader consumer inflation.
The latest measures come several months before Nigeria's presidential and National Assembly elections scheduled for January 16, 2027.
The ₦1,350-per-litre ceiling remains under negotiation and has not yet been established as a permanent market rule.
NNPC's 30-day at-cost sales program is expected to provide more immediate relief while officials work on longer-term mechanisms involving crude supply, CNG expansion and targeted consumer assistance.
The effectiveness of the measures will depend heavily on international crude prices, exchange rates, domestic refinery output and whether global fuel markets begin to normalize.
Sources: Presidency of Nigeria; Federal Ministry of Finance; Reuters.
Courtesy: www.reuters.com
