Goldman Sachs Lifts December Brent Crude Forecast to $90 on Middle East Supply Risks

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): Goldman Sachs has raised its December Brent crude oil price forecast to $90 per barrel, on account of heightened supply disruption risks in connection with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region.

In its commodity research report released on October 11, the investment bank increased its previous forecast by $5 per barrel. However, it retained its average Brent price projection for 2027 at $80 per barrel, indicating that its longer-term outlook remains unchanged.

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The bank noted that global oil supply and demand were broadly balanced in September, while Persian Gulf crude exports, including shipments transported by sea, recovered to their average 2025 levels. This indicates that the market has not yet experienced a sustained supply shortfall, the report noted.

Goldman Sachs stated that the outlook remains vulnerable to geopolitical developments. It identified persistent regional tensions, relatively low global crude inventories, and demand for inventory replenishment as key factors supporting prices. Financial hedging activity is also contributing to market volatility, it added.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical risk point for oil transportation. Any escalation in disruption through the waterway could tighten global supply and push Brent prices higher. Conversely, easing tensions and improving supply expectations could trigger a price correction.

Looking beyond the immediate outlook, Goldman Sachs expects Middle Eastern production to recover gradually, which in turn may result in moderated prices.