Goldman Sees China Crude Imports Staying Weak

Goldman Sachs expects China’s crude oil imports to remain subdued in the coming months if international prices stay elevated, challenging market expectations that a strong rebound in Chinese buying will provide significant additional support to oil prices.

By Carolina Curiel
Published September 23, 2026

MONTREAL (Oil Monster): China’s crude oil buying is unlikely to rebound sharply in the near term if international oil prices remain elevated, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.

The outlook pushes back against market expectations that a strong recovery in demand from the world’s largest crude importer could become a major source of additional support for oil prices.

China Crude Imports Remain Well Below Seasonal Levels

Chinese crude imports have remained subdued for roughly six months as refiners have relied more heavily on alternative energy sources and existing crude inventories to meet domestic requirements.

Seaborne crude net imports rose approximately 6% in September compared with August.

Despite the increase, volumes remained almost 3 million barrels per day below normal seasonal levels.

Earlier market data showed that China had sharply reduced crude purchases after Middle East supply disruptions drove oil prices higher, using inventories and other energy sources to cushion the impact.

Russian and Iranian Share of Imports Falls

The composition of China’s crude purchases also shifted in September.

Russian and Iranian crude accounted for less than one-third of Chinese imports during the month, compared with approximately half in August.

Goldman Sachs said the shift toward non-sanctioned crude has increased China’s participation in openly traded markets, potentially making changes in Chinese purchasing more visible in benchmark pricing.

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Goldman Sees Only Moderate Q4 Import Recovery

Goldman Sachs used both fundamental and statistical models to estimate how Chinese crude imports could develop through the remainder of the year.

Its crude and refined-product balance analysis points to an increase of only about 600,000 barrels per day in total crude imports during the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter.

Goldman said the increase would partly reflect higher refined-product exports and slower draws from domestic product inventories.

Even with that recovery, Bloomberg reported that Goldman expects China’s fourth-quarter crude imports to remain around 3 million barrels per day below the same period a year earlier.

Statistical Model Points to Softer October Imports

A separate Goldman Sachs statistical model, based on imported crude prices, refined-product inventories, lagged imports and seasonal patterns, points to a similar conclusion.

The model indicated a modest pickup in September followed by a move back toward August import levels in October.

Together, the two approaches suggest that the bank does not expect China to deliver the sharp near-term demand rebound some oil-market participants have anticipated.

China Imports Carry Significant Brent Price Sensitivity

Goldman estimates that a sustained 1 million-barrel-per-day change in China’s crude net imports over a six-month period could alter Brent’s estimated fair value by approximately $4 per barrel.

The estimate highlights why Chinese purchasing remains closely watched even when changes in import volumes appear modest relative to the size of the global market.

However, Goldman does not view stronger Chinese imports as the primary upside risk to its current oil-price outlook.

Middle East Supply Disruption Remains Main Upside Risk

The bank said a further escalation in attacks affecting Middle Eastern crude production and export infrastructure remains the most significant upside risk to its crude-price forecast.

Goldman therefore sees the oil market balancing two opposing forces: continued geopolitical risk to supply and restrained crude demand from China at elevated prices.

If Chinese buying remains subdued and Middle East disruptions do not worsen, the expected demand rebound may provide less support to benchmark prices than some market participants currently anticipate.