ETRI: Chinese Natural Gas Demand to Peak in 2040

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): The most recent data released by the Economics & Technology Research Institute (ETRI) under the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) noted that the country’s natural gas demand is expected to peak in 2040. The demand is forecast to touch 605.9 Bcm. However, the demand could be as low as 558.5 Bcm under the worst-case scenario, it said.

The current forecast is much lower when compared with the ETRI forecasts during the previous two years. It had forecast 2040 demand to touch 615.5 Bcm in 2022 and 650 Bcm in 2021.

ETRI believes that natural gas will turn out to be an important source of energy in support of the country’s green transformation drive, by replacing highly polluting fuels. The natural gas consumption for power generation is expected to contribute to nearly 70% of the total Chinese gas demand growth by 2040.

The proportion of oil and gas in primary energy mix will be at around 25% in 2040, out of which oil will account for about 13%-14%, while natural gas accounts for nearly 11-12%, ETRI report said.

China’s oil demand is expected to reach a peak of 780-800 million mt before 2030, driven by boosted demand for transport fuel. The rapid electrification of road transport in the subsequent years will lead to gradual drop in demand until 2040.