SEATTLE (Oil Monster): Global crude oil output is projected to rise by around 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, with Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina expected to contribute roughly half of that increase, according to the December Short-Term Energy Outlook. Recent supply growth has been led primarily by producers outside the OPEC+ alliance.
In 2024, non-OPEC+ countries added about 1.1 million b/d, but coordinated output cuts by OPEC+ offset those gains, resulting in a slight decline in global production. Output rebounded strongly in 2025, increasing an estimated 2.2 million b/d, largely driven by non-OPEC+ producers. Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina together accounted for more than a quarter of that growth.
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Brazil’s production expansion has been fueled by new offshore developments, including multiple floating production storage and offloading vessels. Government data shows output surpassed 4 million b/d in late 2025, with additional FPSO start-ups expected to lift average production to about 4 million b/d in 2026.
Guyana has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing producers, with offshore projects pushing output close to 1 million b/d. Further project start-ups in 2026 are expected to sustain rapid growth.
Meanwhile, Argentina’s oil sector has rebounded on rising output from the Vaca Muerta shale, driving national production toward an estimated 810,000 b/d in 2026.
