SEATTLE (Oil Monster): The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a sharp rise in Alaska’s crude oil production in 2026, marking a notable shift following decades of output decline. The latest projection reflects an increase from the agency’s earlier estimates.
According to the newly released Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report, Alaska’s crude oil output is expected to grow by 13%, equivalent to an additional 55,000 barrels per day (b/d) next year. Production is projected to reach 477,000 b/d, which would represent the highest annual level recorded since 2018 and the strongest year-over-year growth since the 1980s.
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The anticipated production boost is primarily driven by two major development projects on Alaska’s North Slope. ConocoPhillips’ Nuna project is expected to reach peak output of 20,000 b/d, while Phase 1 of the Pikka development, jointly led by Santos and Repsol, is scheduled to begin production in early 2026 and ramp up to 80,000 b/d by mid-year.
Initial well tests from both projects indicate strong performance, with average output of approximately 480 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), underscoring their productivity potential.
