EIA Forecasts Dip in U.S. Net Crude Oil Imports

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): The most recent Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) foresees dip in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories to five-year lows during July and August this year. However, it will see a rebound, averaging to near the 2020–24 levels during the second half next year.

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The U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 461 million barrels as at the end of April this year. EIA forecasts the U.S. Commercial crude oil inventories to fall below 430 million barrels in August. The dip in inventories is in response to anticipated rise in U.S. refinery runs in the coming months. The refinery runs are predicted to witness increase from an average of 15.4 million b/d in Q1 this year to an average of 16.2 million b/d in Q3 2024, EIA report said.

The U.S. crude oil production is predicted to increase to an average of 13.7 million b/d in 2025, higher than the previous record of 12.9 million b/d set during the previous year. The rise in crude oil production coupled with reduced refinery runs will result in reduced net imports of crude oil by the U.S. in late-2024 and in 2025. The net crude oil imports to fall to 2.1 million b/d in 2024 and then fall to 1.3 million b/d in 2025.