ICRA Foresees Surge in India’s FY25 Oil Import Bill

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): According to latest forecast by rating agency ICRA Ltd, India’s net oil import bill is expected to range between $101 billion and $104 billion in FY25. This is under the assumption that oil prices are likely to average at around $85 per barrel during this period. It must be noted that the country’s oil import bill had totalled $96.1 billion in FY24. The ratings agency expects the country’s oil import dependency to continue to remain high in FY25.

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ICRA noted that India received notable discount on oil imported from Russia, upon comparison with West Asia. The price per unit of oil from Russia stood 15.6% in the initial eleven-month period of FY24, when compared with imports from West Asia. This has led to savings of approximately $7.9 billion during this period. However, the advantage diminished in the latter part of the fiscal year.

The data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the share of Russian crude in total imports surged to 36% in the first eleven months of FY24, compared with share of 2% in FY22, ICRA noted.

The report warns that escalation of the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict could put more upward pressure on the value of the country’s net oil imports in FY 25, which in turn will further widen the country’s current account deficit (CAD).