SEATTLE (Oil Monster): The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent crude oil prices will peak at $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, driven by ongoing supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Restricted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have forced major producers—including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain—to shut in 7.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in March, with outages expected to rise further to 9.1 million b/d in April. The EIA assumes the conflict will not persist beyond April, allowing production to gradually recover, with output returning close to pre-conflict levels by late 2026.
Brent crude averaged $103 per barrel in March and is projected to decline below $90/b by the fourth quarter, eventually averaging $76/b in 2027. The Brent-WTI spread widened to $12/b in March and is expected to peak at $15/b in April before narrowing as supply conditions improve.
Elevated crude prices have pushed U.S. fuel costs higher, with gasoline projected to peak near $4.30 per gallon and diesel above $5.80 per gallon in April. Tight LNG supply and strong U.S. exports, alongside rising electricity demand, continue to shape global energy markets.
YOU MAY ALSO BE INTERESTED IN:
EIA STEO: Brent Oil Seen at $58 in 2026, $53 in 2027 as Global Supply Surplus Expands
EIA expects lower gasoline prices in 2026 and 2027 as crude oil prices fall
