Global crude oil transportation costs have climbed to more than $20 per barrel from roughly $3 a year ago as war-risk premiums, tanker shortages and costly ship-to-ship transfers reshape international oil trade, according to Goldman Sachs.
Published October 22, 2026
What Readers Should Know
MONTREAL (Oil Monster): The cost of moving crude oil around the world has risen roughly sevenfold in a year, adding a new layer of expense to an oil market already dealing with geopolitical risk, refinery disruptions and tight tanker availability.
Goldman Sachs estimates the average global crude freight rate has climbed above $20 per barrel from approximately $3 per barrel a year ago.
The increases began primarily with very large crude carriers and Middle Eastern export routes but have since spread across the international tanker market, with long-distance trades facing some of the strongest pressure.
The Freight Shock
$20+ per barrel
Average global crude freight cost
~$3 per barrel
Comparable level one year ago
$35+ per barrel
Some Middle East crude routes
Goldman Sachs identified five major factors behind the unusually high transportation costs now affecting crude markets.
Where the Added Cost Comes From
$7/barrel: Strait of Hormuz war-risk premium
$4/barrel: Ship-to-ship transfers outside the Persian Gulf
$4/barrel: Higher marine fuel costs
$3/barrel: Inefficient tanker allocation and vessel diversions
$2/barrel: Restrictions affecting Iran's tanker fleet and increased demand for other vessels
The Hormuz war-risk premium and ship-to-ship transfers alone account for more than half of the year-over-year increase in average crude transportation costs.
The breakdown shows that the freight shock is not being driven by one isolated factor. Insurance risk, vessel shortages, higher fuel prices and less-efficient trading routes are reinforcing one another.
The largest individual component is the war-risk premium associated with moving tankers through and around the Strait of Hormuz.
Repeated attacks on commercial vessels and continuing uncertainty over navigation through the waterway have forced tanker owners, charterers and insurers to price in substantially greater risk.
Goldman estimates that this factor alone accounts for roughly $7 per barrel of the current freight burden.
Those additional costs can remain embedded in delivered crude prices even when physical export volumes begin to recover.
OilMonster Market Lens
The cost of a barrel no longer ends with the crude benchmark.
A refiner buying crude priced at $100 per barrel may face another $20, $30 or more in transportation costs depending on the route.
That means two crude grades with similar benchmark prices can have dramatically different delivered economics once tanker freight, insurance and transfer costs are included.
Gulf producers and traders increasingly rely on ship-to-ship transfers to maintain exports while direct tanker movements through the highest-risk areas remain difficult.
Crude can be moved through the Strait of Hormuz on shuttle tankers and then transferred to long-haul vessels positioned outside the Gulf.
The system has helped restore physical oil flows, but it requires additional tankers, additional handling and considerably more vessel time.
Goldman estimates that the practice adds approximately $4 per barrel to average crude transportation costs.
Nearly one-sixth of tankers currently operating in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman are involved in ship-to-ship transfers on a typical day, according to the bank.
Tanker operators are also paying considerably more for bunker fuel.
Goldman estimates higher marine fuel prices are adding approximately $4 per barrel to the global crude freight burden.
That creates a feedback loop across the energy market: higher petroleum-product prices increase the cost of operating tankers, which raises the delivered cost of crude, which can then raise refinery feedstock costs.
The bank said limited progress in restoring Middle Eastern refined-product exports could keep bunker-fuel markets tight for longer.
The conflict has also made the global tanker fleet less efficient.
Ships are being redirected, held longer in high-risk areas or assigned to shuttle operations that would not normally be necessary.
Goldman estimates inefficient vessel allocation and tanker diversions are adding approximately $3 per barrel.
The result is effectively a reduction in usable tanker capacity even without vessels physically disappearing from the global fleet.
Restrictions affecting Iran's tanker fleet represent another estimated $2 per barrel of transportation pressure.
When part of the tanker fleet is unavailable or commercially difficult to use, buyers compete more aggressively for vessels able to operate within conventional international trade and insurance systems.
That contributes to higher rates across routes well beyond Iranian crude exports.
Why a Tanker Shortage Spreads Globally
The increase initially hit VLCCs and routes directly connected to Middle Eastern exports.
Goldman says the pressure has now spread across major international crude routes, particularly long-haul trades.
That is consistent with recent changes in refinery purchasing behavior.
Asian refiners have increasingly turned to smaller Aframax tankers, long-term vessel charters and crude purchased on a delivered basis as they try to reduce exposure to extreme spot tanker costs.
Long-distance barrels from the United States and West Africa have become less competitive in some Asian markets because of the additional transportation expense.
Goldman expects elevated freight costs to widen the price differences between individual crude grades.
Most internationally traded crude benchmarks are quoted on a free-on-board basis, meaning the headline crude price generally does not include the full transportation cost to the refinery.
A producer that depends heavily on distant customers may therefore have to discount its crude to offset the buyer's higher freight bill.
By contrast, crude located geographically closer to a refinery can command stronger relative pricing because less of the delivered cost is consumed by transportation.
OilMonster Market Lens
Freight is effectively becoming part of crude quality.
Refiners traditionally compare barrels based on sulfur, density, product yield and price.
In the current market, distance and shipping availability have become equally important.
A technically attractive crude can lose its economic advantage simply because it is too expensive to transport.
The impact is particularly important for Asian refiners because many depend heavily on long-distance seaborne crude imports.
Higher freight raises the effective cost of refinery feedstock even when the underlying crude benchmark does not change.
Refiners then have two basic choices: pass some of the higher cost into finished fuel prices or absorb it through lower margins.
Goldman says persistently high freight could reduce refiners' overall crude demand or encourage them to buy from geographically closer suppliers.
That could further reshape established oil-trading patterns if current shipping conditions persist.
Elevated crude transport costs can also support prices for gasoline, diesel and other refined products.
Refineries need to recover feedstock, transportation and operating costs when they sell finished fuels.
If the cost of delivering crude rises by tens of dollars per barrel, part of that increase can eventually move through the refining system into wholesale fuel prices.
This does not mean freight translates directly dollar-for-dollar into retail prices, but it increases the cost base facing refiners and traders.
The relationship between crude supply and freight has become unusually complicated.
A recovery in Gulf oil exports would normally be expected to reduce pressure on crude prices.
Goldman says the opposite effect can occur in tanker markets if additional export volumes depend heavily on ship-to-ship transfers.
More crude moving through the shuttle system requires more tanker capacity, potentially pushing freight rates higher even as physical oil availability improves.
In other words, the same export recovery that eases one part of the oil market can tighten another.
Goldman's base case still calls for Brent crude to decline toward approximately $90 per barrel by the end of 2026 and average around $80 per barrel during 2027.
The forecast assumes Middle Eastern production and export volumes continue recovering.
However, the bank says elevated freight costs create upside risk to that outlook.
Further tanker attacks, damage to oil infrastructure or a more persistent geopolitical risk premium could keep delivered oil costs higher than the baseline forecast assumes.
Goldman's Current Oil View
Year-end 2026 Brent: About $90/barrel in the base case
2027 Brent average: About $80/barrel
Main upside risks: Persistent freight costs, tanker attacks, infrastructure damage and a prolonged geopolitical risk premium
A meaningful decline in crude transportation costs will likely require more than slightly lower tanker spot rates.
The larger structural pressures would need to ease.
What the Market Needs for Freight to Normalize
Goldman expects the factors supporting freight rates to remain largely in place for as long as the current Middle East conflict persists.
The Bottom Line
Crude benchmarks alone are no longer enough to explain what refiners are paying for oil.
With average freight above $20 per barrel and some Middle East routes above $35, transportation can now materially change which crude grades are competitive and which suppliers win a refinery's business.
That means an increase in physical oil exports does not automatically mean cheaper delivered crude.
Until tanker availability, Hormuz security and ship-to-ship dependence normalize, freight will remain part of the oil-price story rather than simply a shipping cost in the background.
