SEATTLE (Oil Monster): India could become 94% dependent on crude oil imports and 65% dependent on natural gas imports by 2030, according to a new report released by S&P Global.
The report warns that declining domestic production by India’s national oil companies (NOCs), combined with limited upstream expansion, will leave the country increasingly vulnerable to supply shocks and global price volatility. In the meantime, the country’s energy demand is expected to double over the next 25 years
Recent trade data indicates that India relies heavily on Middle East energy flows, with nearly 60% of crude oil and LNG imports and 85% of LPG imports passing through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz.
The report criticized India’s long-standing policy of focusing on downstream supply rather than acquiring upstream overseas energy assets. It pointed to Japan as a model, where companies like Inpex combine upstream ownership with energy security planning despite 99% import dependence.
S&P Global urged India to take immediate measures to expand domestic energy production, invest in international upstream assets and boost storage capacity. Additionally, it urged the country to pay immediate attention to diversifying supply sources beyond the Middle East. The country must use the current Middle East disruptions as a critical opportunity to fast-track reforms.
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