SEATTLE (Oil Monster): UBS, on Thursday, cut its Brent crude price forecast by $25 for the September quarter to about $80 a barrel, on average, and now expects prices to hold the quarter after, citing the rise in oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz after the recent U.S.-Iran agreement.
The bank also lowered its 2027 average Brent crude price forecast by $10 to $75 per barrel.
UBS said since the MoU, oil transits through the Strait have recovered to around 50% of pre-conflict levels, with Iranian crude also regaining momentum as the U.S. blockade eases.
The bank said it expects normalisation to be gradual, noting that inbound tankers to the Persian Gulf have lagged outbound tankers by 2:1 recently.
UBS said slower demand growth in China would mean it would not have to substantially draw from its inventory in the near term, implying its imports may remain lower for longer.
UBS said the recent unwind in geopolitical risk premium in oil prices is also playing out in LNG.
The bank lowered its forecast for Japan Korea Marker LNG prices for the rest of the year to $17.5 per mmbtu, from $22 per mmbtu, and to $13 from $14.5 for 2027.
Courtesy: www.reuters.com
