UBS raises Brent outlook, sees oil at $110/bbl by end-2026

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): UBS on Thursday raised its forecast for Brent crude prices, expecting oil to remain elevated in ​the coming months as Middle Eastern supply stays ‌vulnerable to disruptions amid geopolitical uncertainty.

• The bank now expects Brent crude to trade at $110 a barrel by the end of 2026, ​up from its previous forecast of $100.
• UBS raised its ​Brent forecast for March 2027 to $95 per barrel ⁠from $90, for June 2027 to $90 from $85 and for ​September 2027 to $85 from $80
• "Uncertainty around our forecasts remains elevated, ​reflecting the unpredictable nature of the Middle East conflict, and the pace of recovery in Gulf production and global oil demand," the ​bank said in a note
• Middle Eastern crude loadings ​have recovered substantially from the severe disruption earlier this year, UBS ‌said, ⁠but added that Gulf countries' crude and condensate port loadings remain below pre-conflict levels
• The bank also noted that October saw a record number of reported attacks on vessels ​in and around ​the Strait ⁠of Hormuz, raising insurance and shipping costs
• Elevated shipping costs are supporting Brent prices, UBS ​said; Middle East-to-China very large crude carrier ​rates ⁠have jumped to $30-$40 a barrel from $1-$3 over the past decade due to longer voyages and tighter tanker availability
• Oil prices ⁠rose ​more than 1% on Wednesday, with ​Brent crude climbing above $115 a barrel, after an attack on a ​Saudi refinery

Courtesy: www.reuters.com