UBS has raised its Brent crude oil forecast to $110 per barrel by the end of 2026 as Middle East supply risks, tanker attacks and unusually high shipping costs continue to support oil prices.
By Carolina Curiel
Published October 29, 2026
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MONTREAL (Oil Monster): UBS has raised its oil-price outlook, saying Brent crude is likely to remain elevated in the coming months as Middle Eastern supply remains vulnerable to disruption.
The bank now expects Brent to trade at $110 per barrel by the end of 2026, up from its previous forecast of $100.
UBS also raised its March 2027 forecast to $95 per barrel from $90, its June forecast to $90 from $85 and its September forecast to $85 from $80.
UBS Brent Forecast
End-2026: $110 | previously $100
March 2027: $95 | previously $90
June 2027: $90 | previously $85
September 2027: $85 | previously $80
UBS said crude loadings from the Middle East have recovered substantially from the severe disruption earlier this year, but Gulf crude and condensate shipments remain below pre-conflict levels.
The bank said uncertainty around its forecasts remains high because the outlook depends heavily on the Middle East conflict, the pace of Gulf production recovery and global oil demand.
October also recorded a record number of reported attacks on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz, adding to insurance and transportation costs.
UBS estimates very large crude carrier rates from the Middle East to China have risen to roughly $30-$40 per barrel, compared with around $1-$3 per barrel over much of the past decade.
Longer voyages, tighter tanker availability and security risks have made transportation a much larger part of the delivered cost of crude.
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UBS is raising its forecast, but it still expects some price normalization.
With Brent currently trading above $110, the revised curve points to oil remaining expensive through year-end before gradually easing during 2027 as Gulf supply and shipping conditions improve.
The revised outlook comes after Brent climbed above $115 per barrel this week following renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.
UBS said continued disruption to Gulf production or shipping could keep prices above its base-case forecasts, while a faster recovery in regional supply could allow crude prices to decline more quickly.
UBS now sees Brent ending 2026 at $110 per barrel, $10 higher than its previous forecast, with prices gradually declining through 2027.
The bank's outlook reflects a market where crude supply has partially recovered but tanker availability, security risks and freight costs continue to keep delivered oil prices elevated.
Courtesy: www.reuters.com
