SEATTLE (Oil Monster): Renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries have disrupted plants representing about 30% of the country's primary refining capacity, reversing a brief recovery in processing after an energy-strike ceasefire broke down.
Ukraine resumed regular attacks on Russian refining infrastructure in late October following the collapse of an energy ceasefire promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Industry sources cited by Reuters said strikes and related emergencies disrupted operations at nine of Russia's 35 largest refineries over the past week.
Affected facilities include refineries in Ryazan, Yaroslavl and the Volga region.
The nine affected refineries have combined primary processing capacity of roughly 300,000 metric tons per day, equivalent to about 2.2 million barrels per day.
Russia's total primary refining capacity is approximately 930,000 metric tons per day, meaning the affected plants account for roughly one-third of the national total.
Actual refinery throughput was already lower than nameplate capacity, however. Russian refineries were processing about 700,000 metric tons of crude per day at the end of October.
The distinction between nameplate capacity and actual throughput matters. The attacked plants represent about 30% of Russia's installed refining capacity, but Reuters sources estimate the renewed strikes reduced actual crude processing by as much as 200,000 tons per day. That leaves Russia balancing domestic fuel needs, refinery repairs and promised diesel exports at the same time.
Russian refinery runs had been recovering before the latest wave of attacks.
OilMonster reported in late October that processing had climbed to around 5 million barrels per day during the second half of the month after attacks temporarily subsided.
The renewed strikes now threaten that recovery and could again alter Russia's balance between crude exports and refined-product output.
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The renewed refinery disruptions come as Russia is also attempting to increase diesel exports under an arrangement announced by the United States.
OilMonster previously reported that Russia has limited surplus diesel because domestic consumption remains high and refinery outages have constrained production.
The Energy Policy Research Foundation estimated that meeting the proposed export volumes in addition to existing shipments could require roughly 384,000 to 509,000 barrels per day of diesel production for export.
Attempts to move Russian diesel to the United States have also encountered commercial and legal complications.
The Malta-flagged tanker Agioi Fanendes, carrying about 40,000 metric tons of ultra-low-sulphur diesel loaded at Russia's Primorsk port, stopped off the U.S. East Coast without a confirmed discharge destination.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said authorities expected the cargo to find another port and be sold in the global market.
The supplied Meduza report also cited the Talisman and Leruo as vessels that had changed course while carrying Russian diesel.
Reduced refinery processing can tighten domestic gasoline and diesel supplies while also limiting Russia's ability to supply international fuel markets.
The effect could extend beyond Russia because global diesel markets were already tight following refinery disruptions in Russia and the Middle East.
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The key issue is how quickly damaged Russian refineries can restore processing and whether Ukraine continues targeting energy infrastructure.
Additional outages could tighten domestic Russian fuel availability, reduce diesel-export capacity and leave more crude available for export instead of processing.
Courtesy: www.meduza.io
