SEATTLE (Oil Monster): Bank of America Global Research has projected that crude oil prices are likely to face sustained downward pressure throughout 2026. Benchmark Brent crude has already declined by nearly 20% since the start of the year, averaging close to $69 per barrel, signaling weak price sentiment.
Analysts noted that geopolitical tensions earlier in 2025 had temporarily pushed crude higher. U.S. sanctions against Russia at the beginning of the year, along with U.S. military strikes on Iran in mid-2025, drove Brent prices up to around $82 per barrel. However, prices retreated sharply in May after the United States and China reached a deal aimed at easing trade friction.
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Looking ahead, Bank of America expects global oil demand to expand by around one million barrels per day in 2026. With a projected oversupply of nearly 2 million b/d, the bank forecasts average prices of $60 per barrel for Brent and $57 per barrel for WTI next year. In a risk-off scenario, analysts warn that Brent could drop toward the $50 per barrel mark.
The outlook remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Supply flows from Iran and Venezuela are uncertain, while Russian output may fall below current expectations. On the demand side, growth is forecast to stay resilient, supported by an anticipated 3.3% increase in global GDP in 2026, the report added.
