SEATTLE (Oil Monster): BP p.l.c. has outlined its expectations for the first quarter of 2026, highlighting the impact of volatile energy markets and ongoing geopolitical tensions on its performance. The company is scheduled to release its full Q1 2026 financial results on April 28.
BP noted that heightened volatility in crude oil, natural gas, and refined product prices—partly driven by the Middle East situation—could influence earnings, trading outcomes, and working capital movements. The company also expects increased divergence between benchmark prices and realized prices due to lag effects.
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Upstream production is projected to remain broadly flat compared to Q4 2025 levels of 2,344 mboe/d. Gas and low carbon energy output is expected to rise slightly, while oil production may edge lower due to pricing impacts. Realizations in the gas segment are likely to remain stable, with trading performance seen as average.
In the oil segment, earnings could see a positive impact of $0.1–$0.2 billion, supported by price lag dynamics. Meanwhile, the customers and products segment is expected to benefit from stronger refining margins and exceptional oil trading performance, despite seasonal demand softness.
BP emphasized that all estimates remain subject to final reporting adjustments.
