SEATTLE (Oil Monster): India’s corporate sector has so far remained largely insulated from the civil and political turmoil unfolding in Iran, with minimal immediate impact on trade flows or domestic credit profiles, according to a recent assessment by Crisil Ratings.
The agency noted that India’s direct trade exposure to Iran is extremely limited, accounting for just 0.3% of total exports and less than 0.1% of imports in the previous fiscal year. Shipments to Iran are primarily focused on basmati rice, while inbound trade mainly includes fruits and nuts. As a result, the short-term economic effects on Indian businesses have been muted.
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However, Crisil cautioned that prolonged instability could create indirect pressures, especially through volatility in global crude oil markets. Iran contributes around 4–5% of global oil supply, and any sustained disruption could trigger higher energy prices. Sectors such as oil refining, aviation, petrochemicals, paints, synthetic textiles, and specialty chemicals could face margin pressure if input costs rise.
Although crude prices initially surged, they have since stabilized. For basmati exporters, demand is expected to remain steady. Still, extended conflict could disrupt logistics, delay payments, and strain working capital cycles. Crisil said it continues to closely monitor developments and assess risks on a sector-by-sector basis.
