EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Foresees Dip in Global Oil Inventories

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): Global oil inventories are expected to decline in the first quarter of 2025, primarily as a result of OPEC+ production cuts, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Additionally, according to the IEA, crude oil prices are anticipated to stay close to their current levels for the duration of the quarter.

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Nonetheless, in the second half of 2025–2026, global oil inventories will rise as a result of slow production increases and comparatively slow growth in the world's oil demand. Prices will be under pressure due to the increase in stocks; the price of Brent crude oil is predicted to average $74 per barrel this year before dropping to $66/b in 2026.

The U.S. IEA expects the global liquid fuels production to increase by 1.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 1.6 million b/d in 2026. This will be mainly on account of anticipated supply growth from countries outside of OPEC+ counties and the relaxation of OPEC+ production cuts.

The U.S. distillate fuel oil consumption is forecast to increase by 4% in 2025, with consumption projected to remain flat in the following year. Meanwhile, the U.S. motor gasoline consumption is likely to remain flat in 2025, followed by a slight reduction in consumption in 2026.