European natural gas prices moved higher as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, extended disruptions to Qatari LNG deliveries and unusually low regional storage levels kept traders focused on winter supply risks.
By Carolina Curiel
Published September 29, 2026
MONTREAL (Oil Monster): European natural gas prices moved higher as traders weighed continued uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz against unusually low storage inventories ahead of the winter heating season.
Dutch front-month futures, the benchmark for European natural gas, traded 1% higher at €72.77 per megawatt-hour by 6:05 p.m. in Amsterdam after fluctuating earlier in the session.
Gas traders continue to follow diplomatic efforts involving the United States and Iran as negotiators explore conditions for restoring more regular commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has continued to support its latest proposal, while U.S. President Donald Trump has rejected the current terms. Trump has nevertheless indicated that further negotiations could take place.
Qatari mediators were expected to hold separate discussions with Iranian and U.S. officials as efforts to narrow the differences continued.
The uncertainty has kept energy markets volatile because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit route for Persian Gulf oil and LNG exports.
QatarEnergy has extended force majeure notices on liquefied natural gas deliveries to customers in Europe and Asia as restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt shipments.
Italian utility Edison said it will not receive Qatari LNG cargoes until the beginning of December.
Customers in Asia, including buyers in Bangladesh and Pakistan, have also been notified that force majeure will continue into November, according to trading sources cited by Reuters.
Qatar has been among the LNG exporters most heavily affected by the disruption because its cargoes normally leave the Persian Gulf through Hormuz.
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Europe is approaching the heating season with gas inventories well below typical levels for late September.
Storage facilities across the region are approximately 71% full, compared with a five-year seasonal average of about 87%.
LNG imports have improved since mid-August after falling sharply earlier in the summer, but the region still faces competition with Asian buyers for available spot cargoes.
The European Commission has said the EU gas system remains more resilient than during the 2022 energy crisis because of greater supply diversification, additional LNG import capacity and lower demand.
However, continued Middle East disruptions and low inventories leave the market exposed to additional price volatility during periods of high winter demand.
Germany, which has Europe's largest gas-storage capacity, is entering the winter period with facilities only about 57% full.
The level is unusually low for late September.
Germany has discussed possible mandatory storage-filling requirements for next year after high summer gas prices weakened the commercial incentive for traders to build inventories.
Despite the low stocks, German gas importer VNG said there is no immediate supply-security threat because Germany now has access to a more diversified mix of pipeline gas and LNG than it did during the 2022 energy crisis.
European policymakers are also focusing on measures to limit the impact of another sharp rise in energy prices.
EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen recently urged member states to continue building gas inventories where needed and consider measures to reduce energy demand if market conditions deteriorate.
European Commission officials have separately said that storage levels around 80% could provide adequate winter protection under current conditions, although the situation remains dependent on weather, LNG availability and geopolitical developments.
European gas prices could move sharply in either direction over the coming months depending on developments in the Middle East and winter weather.
Marco Saalfrank, head of merchant trading at Swiss energy company Axpo, said prices could climb above €100 per megawatt-hour if continued supply disruptions coincide with severe cold weather in both Europe and Asia.
Conversely, prices could decline if transit through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes or Qatar is able to restore more LNG exports.
Saalfrank said that even in a more favorable scenario, prices may not immediately return to the levels below €30/MWh seen before the conflict because uncertainty is likely to persist.
A prolonged disruption to Qatari LNG exports would increase competition between European and Asian buyers during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Before the current disruption, roughly one-fifth of global LNG trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
With European inventories below normal and Asian heating demand potentially increasing during cold weather, flexible LNG cargoes could command stronger prices if both regions need additional supply at the same time.
Storage Risk: Europe's 71% storage level provides a significant buffer, but it is considerably below the five-year seasonal average of 87%, leaving less protection against a prolonged cold spell or another supply disruption.
LNG Risk: Qatar's extended force majeure keeps a major source of global LNG supply constrained at the same time Europe is trying to rebuild inventories.
Price Risk: The market remains unusually sensitive to both diplomatic developments around Hormuz and winter weather. A reopening could pressure prices lower, while sustained disruption combined with strong heating demand could produce another sharp increase.
Courtesy: www.livemint.com (Bloomberg)
