IEA Forecasts Slowdown in Oil Demand Growth for Rest of 2025

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): In its May Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that it anticipates a slowdown in the world's oil demand for the remainder of this year.

Economic challenges and growing EV sales are the primary causes of the anticipated decline. After a comparatively strong first quarter of the year, the non-OECD delivery numbers, particularly for China and India, continued to be poorer than expected.

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The IEA predicts that the rise in world oil demand would drop from 990 kb/d in Q1 2025 to 650 kb/d for the rest of the year. In the meantime, it increased the average demand growth estimate for 2025 to 740,000 barrels per day, which is 20,000 barrels per day higher than the previous study. Additionally, it is anticipated that global supply growth would average 760,000 barrels per day in 2026, which is a little higher level. According to the IEA, oil inventories are also expected to increase by an average of 720 kb/d this year and 930 kb/d next year.

The IEA kept the refinery throughput forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 83.2 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month report. It stated that the anticipated yearly improvements of about 400 kb/d in both years are probably going to be driven by the non-OECD regions. It should be mentioned that in late April of this year, refining margins reached yearly highs in the majority of locations and configurations.