OPEC+ Market Share Set to Witness Decline in 2025 and 2026

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): Due mostly to rising production from non-OPEC regions, particularly the United States, the market share of OPEC+ countries in the global oil market is expected to drop this year and the next year.

In 2016, OPEC+ members held a 53 percent market share. In 2025 and 2026, this is probably going to fall to 46%, according to energy experts. Even if OPEC+ countries have gradually reversed their production quota cutbacks, which could result in higher supply, the market share is still expected to decline. Note that between March 2025 and September 2026, the voluntary 2.2 million barrel per day production cuts that were announced in November 2023 will be phased off. Cuts that were announced in April of last year will remain in effect until the end of 2026.

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OPEC+ nations may be forced to delay supply increases as a result of the decline in oil prices. The market share of OPEC+ members may be impacted by the sanctions imposed on Iran and Russia. Experts pointed out that a potential reversal of previous quota reductions would aid the oil-producing bloc in regaining its market positions.

Meanwhile, it is anticipated that the supply of OPEC+ will increase by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 to 35.8 million bpd and by an additional 600,000 bpd the following year.

According to the EIA, the United States, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil will be the main contributors to the 1.9 million barrels per day and 1.6 million barrels per day growth in world oil production in 2025 and 2026, respectively.