MONTREAL (Oil Monster): Iran’s seaborne crude oil exports have fallen to zero and remained there into October as the U.S. naval blockade physically prevents Iranian barrels from leaving the Gulf, according to data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa.
Iranian crude exports dropped to zero during the second week of September from a 14-day average of approximately 230,000 barrels per day at the beginning of the month and remained at zero as of October 5.
The collapse stands in sharp contrast with the wider Gulf, where crude exports excluding Iran recovered to more than 81% of prewar levels during September, led by rising Saudi shipments.
Iran’s export collapse is reshaping more than its own oil trade. Vortexa says Russia, Iran and Venezuela exported a combined 4.73 million bpd in September, down about 26% from 6.39 million bpd a year earlier. Russia alone supplied 3.79 million bpd, or roughly 80% of that total.
At the same time, about 43 million of the 83 million barrels of Iranian crude currently sitting on tankers are trapped west of Hormuz. That means more than half of Iran’s floating crude inventory is effectively stranded inside the blockade zone.
See how Russian crude is replacing disrupted Middle East supply →Vortexa said Iran’s seaborne crude exports fell to zero during the second week of September.
At the beginning of September, the country had been exporting approximately 230,000 bpd on a 14-day average.
No seaborne crude exports were recorded as of October 5, according to the firm’s latest report.
The result marks a further deterioration from earlier in 2026, when Iranian exports had already fallen sharply under U.S. pressure and regional shipping disruptions.
ALSO READ: Iranian Oil Exports Fell to Six-Year Low Earlier in 2026
Vortexa Director of Maritime Risk and Intelligence Claire Jungman said the physical blockade has had a materially different effect from years of financial and trade sanctions.
The central difference is logistical: Iranian crude may still exist and buyers may still be interested in it, but tankers cannot move those barrels out of the Gulf under current conditions.
The United States reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports in July after an earlier temporary easing of restrictions collapsed.
Washington has subsequently increased pressure on vessels and networks involved in transporting Iranian crude and petroleum products.
Iran still has a substantial volume of crude stored on tankers.
Vortexa estimates approximately 83 million barrels of Iranian crude are currently held on the water.
Of that total, about 43 million barrels are stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz because of the blockade.
That means roughly 52% of Iran’s floating crude inventory is located inside the area where physical export access is severely constrained.
Tankers have long served as temporary floating storage when Iran has struggled to move crude to buyers.
The current situation is more restrictive because the blockade prevents large accumulated volumes from reaching international markets even when storage vessels are available.
If the export halt persists, Iran must either continue storing crude on tankers and onshore or eventually adjust production as available storage fills.
OilMonster reported earlier in the conflict that analysts estimated Iran could withstand a complete export stoppage for a limited period before storage constraints would begin forcing production decisions.
ALSO READ: How Long Can Iran Maintain Production With Exports Blocked?
The latest zero-export reading follows several major declines earlier in the year.
Vortexa estimated Iranian crude and condensate exports at about 209,000 bpd in May, down from approximately 1.34 million bpd in April and nearly 1.9 million bpd in March.
Shipments later resumed temporarily after an earlier blockade was lifted, but the renewed U.S. blockade in July again restricted Iranian access to international buyers.
By early September, OilMonster reported that significant Iranian crude flows through Hormuz had effectively stalled.
ALSO READ: Iran Crude Exports Through Hormuz Stall for First Time on Record
The Iranian export collapse contrasts sharply with the recovery elsewhere in the Gulf.
Vortexa said crude flows from Gulf countries excluding Iran recovered to more than 81% of prewar levels in September.
Saudi Arabia led much of that recovery as producers increased shipments through both the Strait of Hormuz and alternative export routes.
The divergence means Iran is losing physical access to buyers at the same time neighboring producers are rebuilding export volumes and competing to regain Asian market share.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have increased crude shipments as regional export infrastructure adapts to the conflict.
Saudi Arabia has relied on both Hormuz and its western pipeline network to restore exports, while the UAE has benefited from its ability to load crude at Fujairah outside the strait.
Those additional Gulf barrels have given Asian refiners more alternatives to Iranian supply.
ALSO READ: Saudi Arabia, UAE Rebuild Crude Exports as Hormuz Recovers
China has historically been the most important remaining destination for Iranian crude.
Vortexa said Chinese buyers now have less urgent need for Iranian barrels because additional Russian crude has helped fill the supply gap.
China increased purchases of Russian oil during the Middle East disruption as refiners sought alternatives to barrels affected by Hormuz restrictions.
The substitution reduces one of Iran’s traditional advantages: discounted crude that buyers were willing to accept despite sanctions risk.
ALSO READ: China Boosts Russian Crude Imports as Middle East Supply Tightens
Vortexa groups crude exports from Iran, Russia and Venezuela into what it describes as “high-risk exports.”
Combined shipments from the three producers averaged approximately 4.73 million bpd in September.
That was down from 6.39 million bpd in September 2025, a decline of roughly 26%.
With Iranian flows effectively disappearing, Russia now represents approximately 80% of the category.
Russian exports rose about 6% month over month to 3.79 million bpd in September, according to Vortexa.
The figure excludes crude transported through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and KEBCO streams.
The increase has helped Moscow capture demand from buyers seeking alternatives to disrupted Iranian and other Middle Eastern supplies.
It also demonstrates how supply disruptions in one sanctioned producer can redirect trade toward another.
The blockade is affecting more than crude oil.
Iranian liquefied petroleum gas exports fell approximately 48% month over month, according to Vortexa.
The decline took LPG shipments to their lowest level since at least January 2023.
That broadens the economic impact of the blockade across Iran’s hydrocarbon export sector.
The United States has also expanded sanctions on shipping networks involved in transporting Iranian oil and petroleum products.
On October 8, the U.S. Treasury announced additional measures targeting individuals, companies and 17 vessels associated with Iranian energy trade.
The sanctions complement the physical blockade by making it more difficult for shipowners, intermediaries and buyers to support Iranian exports outside normal commercial channels.
The distinction between Iranian exports and overall Gulf supply is important.
Iranian seaborne crude exports may currently be at zero, but exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and other Gulf producers have recovered significantly.
That recovery has helped prevent the loss of Iranian barrels from creating an even larger global crude deficit.
However, tanker attacks and high shipping costs continue to make the regional recovery vulnerable.
The Strait of Hormuz remains under severe security pressure even as non-Iranian exports recover.
Commercial vessels have faced repeated attacks, and Iran has increased its efforts to enforce restrictions on ships moving through waters it claims to control.
Those risks keep freight and insurance costs high and could again reduce regional crude flows if vessel traffic deteriorates.
ALSO READ: Hormuz Tanker Attacks Threaten Gulf Oil Export Recovery
The immediate question is how long Iran can continue producing crude while seaborne exports remain at zero.
The availability of floating and onshore storage will determine how long production can continue without additional export outlets.
Markets will also watch whether U.S.-Iran negotiations alter the blockade, whether additional Iranian cargoes obtain exemptions or alternative routes, and whether China continues replacing Iranian supply with Russian barrels.
A sustained zero-export period would increase pressure on Iranian storage, production and government oil revenue even if the wider Gulf market continues recovering.
Are Iranian crude oil exports really at zero?
Vortexa says Iran’s seaborne crude exports fell to zero during the second week of September and remained at zero as of October 5.
How much Iranian crude is currently stored on tankers?
Vortexa estimates approximately 83 million barrels of Iranian crude are currently on the water.
How much Iranian crude is trapped inside the Gulf?
About 43 million barrels are trapped west of the Strait of Hormuz because of the U.S. blockade.
Who was Iran’s main crude customer?
China has historically been the principal destination for Iranian crude, but Vortexa says Russian supply has reduced China’s immediate need for Iranian barrels.
How much Russian crude was exported in September?
Vortexa estimates Russian exports at approximately 3.79 million bpd, excluding CPC and KEBCO crude.
What happened to Iranian LPG exports?
Iranian LPG exports fell 48% month over month to their lowest level since at least January 2023.
Iranian Oil Exports Fell to Six-Year Low Earlier in 2026
Iran Crude Exports Through Hormuz Stall for First Time on Record
China Boosts Russian Crude Imports as Middle East Supply Tightens
Saudi Arabia, UAE Rebuild Crude Exports as Hormuz Recovers
Hormuz Tanker Attacks Threaten Gulf Oil Export Recovery
Sources: Vortexa; Reuters.
Courtesy: www.reuters.com
