SEATTLE (Oil Monster): U.S. crude oil production is expected to average 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) October 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report. Compared to the earlier prediction, this indicates a minor upward revision.
The updated forecast is predicated on the strong U.S. output despite volatile international oil markets. For example, there have been more project start-ups in the Gulf of Mexico. The region's improved production levels have made a substantial contribution to the higher output prediction. According to the EIA, the difficulties encountered in the larger shale industry have been counterbalanced by the increased offshore output.
According to the agency, until 2026, nations outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will drive the expansion of oil output. The EIA believes that despite the OPEC+ countries' announcements of higher production, their actual output is likely to stay far below targets.
The EIA predicts a decline in crude oil prices, particularly as a result of growing inventories. According to the report, the price of Brent crude oil is predicted to drop to $52 per barrel in 2026 after averaging $69 per barrel in 2025.
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