SEATTLE (Oil Monster): If the weather is as mild as it has been the previous two winters, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates a comparatively stable global supply-demand balance this year. It stated that, like the previous two winters, the prices are also expected to be within the range. However, lower temperatures in Asia and Europe could result in higher natural gas prices and possible price increases for the commodities.
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Limited LNG capacity additions are anticipated to come online this winter, primarily in the US, according to the US EIA. By the end of this year, the natural gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled to expire. If it isn't renewed, Europe might receive less natural gas via pipeline. Other problems include unforeseen outages at LNG export facilities, delays in the start-up of new projects, and geopolitical events may also have an impact on the global natural gas balances.
The demand for LNG as a fuel source for power generation may also be impacted by problems related to the availability of electricity.
The United States will continue to be the primary provider to the world's LNG markets, having become the biggest LNG exporter in 2023. According to EIA projections, U.S. LNG exports will average 13.7 Bcf/d for the winter of 2024–2025, an increase of 8% over the previous winter. Meanwhile, one major unknown for this winter is the amount of LNG consumed in East Asia, especially in China.
