EIA Raises 2026 Brent Oil Forecast to $97.44 a Barrel

MONTREAL (Oil Monster): The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its 2026 crude oil price forecast as global supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions and shipping constraints continue to affect international oil markets.

In its November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released November 10, the agency reported that Brent crude averaged $124 per barrel in October, up $10 from September. That was its highest inflation-adjusted monthly level since July 2022.

EIA Revises Crude Oil Price Forecasts

The EIA now expects Brent crude to average $97.44 per barrel in 2026, compared with its previous estimate of approximately $96.32. Its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast stands at $88.29 per barrel.

For 2027, the agency projects lower annual average prices of $85.78 per barrel for Brent and $80.54 for WTI as global oil supplies recover and inventories rebuild.

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Global Inventories Expected to Recover in 2027

The EIA estimates that global oil inventories declined by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day during the third quarter of 2026. The agency expects inventories to begin recovering as production increases and supply disruptions ease.

Brent prices are forecast to fall gradually during 2027, averaging approximately $77 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

OilMonster Industry Edge | Supply Recovery vs. Shipping Risk

The EIA's outlook highlights a key distinction between physical oil availability and deliverable supply. Rebuilding production alone may not immediately ease prices if tanker shortages, shipping disruptions and longer trade routes continue to restrict global oil flows.

That helps explain why the agency anticipates lower prices in 2027 while still warning of near-term supply pressures. The pace of inventory recovery and the normalization of shipping routes will be important indicators to monitor.

U.S. Oil Production Forecast to Reach Record High

U.S. crude oil production is projected to reach a record 14.3 million barrels per day in 2027, up from approximately 13.9 million bpd in 2026.

The agency expects increased global production and recovering inventories to gradually reduce pressure on crude oil prices next year.

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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook.