OPEC+ Oil Output Jumps 2.04M Bpd in October

MONTREAL (Oil Monster): OPEC+ crude oil production rose by approximately 2.04 million barrels per day (bpd) in October 2026 to 41.23 million bpd, as Saudi Arabia led a recovery in output despite continued shipping disruptions linked to the Iran war, according to OPEC's November monthly report.

The group's October production reached approximately 97% of its February level of 42.72 million bpd, based on Reuters calculations using OPEC data. The recovery comes as Gulf producers continue using alternative export arrangements to manage disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia Leads October Production Recovery

Saudi Arabia reported producing 10.563 million bpd in October, compared with 8.372 million bpd in September. The increase brought its self-reported output to the highest level since February, when production stood at 10.882 million bpd.

The wider OPEC+ production figures are based on secondary-source assessments, rather than solely on figures submitted by individual governments.

The production recovery has coincided with efforts to restore Gulf oil exports using alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers. However, disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz continue to complicate regional shipments.

Also Read: Saudi Arabia, UAE Rebuild Crude Exports as Hormuz Flows Recover

Russian Oil Production Also Increases

Russia's crude oil production increased by 41,000 bpd in October to 8.668 million bpd, according to the secondary sources referenced in OPEC's report.

A previously announced energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine did not hold, although the temporary reduction in attacks on Russian refining infrastructure may have provided some operational relief. The extent of its impact on October production remains uncertain.

OilMonster Industry Edge | Production Recovery Does Not Eliminate Export Risk

OPEC+ production has recovered to 97% of February's level, but higher output does not necessarily mean an equivalent recovery in export deliveries. Strait of Hormuz disruptions and reliance on alternative shipping arrangements remain important constraints.

The distinction matters for assessing physical oil availability: production volumes measure crude extracted, while actual market supply also depends on storage, transportation and export capacity.

OPEC Maintains Global Oil Demand Forecasts

OPEC left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged after six consecutive monthly downward revisions.

The producer group expects global demand to increase by 180,000 bpd in 2026. For 2027, it forecasts growth of 2.55 million bpd, bringing average worldwide demand to approximately 108.3 million bpd.

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Courtesy: Reuters.